CHIBears
9-6
26
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
024
DETLions
4-11
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
10
10
3
3
26
Lions
3
7
7
7
24
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
327
Total Plays
68
63
Yards / Play
5.7
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.19
Passing Yards
245
255
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
24/42(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.01
Rushing Yards
144
72
Rush Attempts
35
20
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-20.95
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
-17
Sack EPA
-4.06
-5.83
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
35
29
Penalty EPA
-4.85
-3.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model56.5%
Spread Pick
Lions+3.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-9
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,546
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-9.8
Home QB Adjustment
-4.1
Away QB Adjustment
+5.6
Market Regression
+6.7
Final Difference
-45.7
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
27
Yards / Game
28
12
Passing Yards / Game
26
9
Rushing Yards / Game
10
16
EPA
EPA / Play
24
21
EPA / Pass
26
20
EPA / Rush
18
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
24
Interceptions / Game
18
23
Fumbles / Game
13
22
Turnover EPA / Game
22
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
8
4th Down Efficiency
25
32
RZ Efficiency
22
13
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
2
Yards / Game
3
5
Passing Yards / Game
4
24
Rushing Yards / Game
23
7
EPA
EPA / Play
21
1
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
21
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
8
Interceptions / Game
22
1
Fumbles / Game
26
1
Turnover EPA / Game
2
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
5
4th Down Efficiency
24
26
RZ Efficiency
7
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U