CHIBears
-
23
TBD
Lambeau Field
62°F
10 mph
24
GBPackers
-
TBD
Lambeau Field
62°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
4
3
3
17
Packers
0
0
3
21
24
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
294
370
Total Plays
66
59
Yards / Play
4.5
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.07
Passing Yards
155
301
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
24/37(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.05
Rushing Yards
139
69
Rush Attempts
27
18
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
41%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-2.51
-11.13
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-16
-40
Sack EPA
-6.18
-8.23
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
35
72
Penalty EPA
-2.56
-10.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+142
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+30.9
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
-25.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.4
Home QB Adjustment
+13.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.1
Market Regression
-33.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
22
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
13
21
Rushing Yards / Game
14
23
EPA
EPA / Play
17
24
EPA / Pass
12
30
EPA / Rush
17
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
2
Interceptions / Game
20
29
Fumbles / Game
20
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
13
4th Down Efficiency
10
28
RZ Efficiency
12
17
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
1
Yards / Game
10
3
Passing Yards / Game
4
12
Rushing Yards / Game
22
1
EPA
EPA / Play
14
1
EPA / Pass
16
3
EPA / Rush
2
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
1
1
Fumbles / Game
13
17
Turnover EPA / Game
30
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
4
4th Down Efficiency
19
17
RZ Efficiency
14
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Packers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U