CHIBears
1-0
10
TBD
Lambeau Field
70°F
027
GBPackers
0-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
0
3
0
10
Packers
3
21
0
3
27
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
228
414
Total Plays
41
66
Yards / Play
5.6
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.20
Passing Yards
48
211
Comp/Att
7/11(64%)
19/25(76%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
8.4
EPA / Pass
-0.58
+0.46
Rushing Yards
180
203
Rush Attempts
27
38
Yards / Rush
6.7
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
26
Passing 1st downs
2
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
13
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
14%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
7
9
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.22
-5.54
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-22
-23
Sack EPA
-4.69
-3.68
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
50
25
Penalty EPA
-7.02
-1.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model76.0%
Spread Pick
Bears+10.0
Expected Value
+11.7%
Cover Probability
55.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+105
Home nfelo
1,517
Away nfelo
1,435
Home Field
+20.6
Base HFA
+37.4
Divisional Adj
-16.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.2
Home QB Adjustment
-2.3
Away QB Adjustment
-5.5
Market Regression
+18.1
Final Difference
200.1
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-5.5
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
16
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
32
13
Rushing Yards / Game
1
26
EPA
EPA / Play
21
20
EPA / Pass
32
14
EPA / Rush
2
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
26
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
25
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
7
4th Down Efficiency
31
23
RZ Efficiency
13
11
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
32
Yards / Game
17
29
Passing Yards / Game
13
6
Rushing Yards / Game
15
31
EPA
EPA / Play
16
32
EPA / Pass
18
32
EPA / Rush
10
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
4
Interceptions / Game
10
13
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
17
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
32
4th Down Efficiency
27
4
RZ Efficiency
22
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U