CHIBears
1-5
10
TBD
Lambeau Field
47°F
10 mph
26
GBPackers
3-2
TBD
Lambeau Field
47°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
1
0
4
Packers
3
3
7
13
26
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
189
406
Total Plays
45
81
Yards / Play
4.2
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.20
+0.09
Passing Yards
120
303
Comp/Att
10/26(38%)
39/56(70%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.15
Rushing Yards
69
103
Rush Attempts
18
23
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
32
Passing 1st downs
9
21
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
25%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
2
9
3rd Down Attempts
8
16
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.32
-6.31
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-10
-23
Sack EPA
-2.08
-7.51
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
108
56
Penalty EPA
-9.00
-5.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+194
Home nfelo
1,571
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+31.3
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+30.6
Home QB Adjustment
-0.6
Away QB Adjustment
-31.2
Market Regression
-31.5
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-31.2
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
25
Yards / Game
14
25
Passing Yards / Game
17
29
Rushing Yards / Game
16
10
EPA
EPA / Play
26
31
EPA / Pass
22
28
EPA / Rush
22
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
11
Interceptions / Game
28
8
Fumbles / Game
25
22
Turnover EPA / Game
4
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
26
4th Down Efficiency
31
24
RZ Efficiency
22
27
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
23
Yards / Game
7
14
Passing Yards / Game
6
2
Rushing Yards / Game
22
26
EPA
EPA / Play
3
26
EPA / Pass
3
24
EPA / Rush
8
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
25
Interceptions / Game
7
29
Fumbles / Game
12
30
Turnover EPA / Game
28
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
22
4th Down Efficiency
19
28
RZ Efficiency
7
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U