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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ packers week 10, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CHI logo
CHIBears
3-5
14
TBD
Lambeau Field
34°F
5 mph
55
GBPackers
5-3
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
34°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
7
7
14
Packers
14
28
6
1
49

Spread

GB logo
-9.5

Total

OVER
53

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
311
451
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
4.6
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.36
+0.29
Passing Yards
256
--
Comp/Att
23/40(57%)
19/32(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.53
+0.54
Rushing Yards
55
132
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
2.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
25%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-19.43
-5.25
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-27
--
Sack EPA
-12.60
--
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
163
50
Penalty EPA
-9.76
-4.31

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model76.2%
Spread Pick
CHI logo
Bears+9.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.1%
Cover Probability
55.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,609
Away nfelo
1,487
Home Field
+3.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.7
Home QB Adjustment
+22.8
Away QB Adjustment
+9.1
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
201.8
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
Value
Ptile
12/22
-5.4
18
12/29
0.3
52
09/07
4.3
78
09/14
6.9
89
09/22
-0.6
46
09/28
1.7
63
10/05
3.3
73
10/12
3.8
76
10/19
-4.0
25
10/26
1.1
57
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+22.8
Value
Ptile
12/29
0.2
51
01/05
-2.1
38
09/04
-1.8
37
09/14
5.2
83
09/21
-1.9
36
09/28
10.4
97
10/02
0.8
55
10/12
3.9
76
10/19
6.7
88
10/26
5.2
83

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Bears logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
14
Yards / Game
20
15
Passing Yards / Game
18
28
Rushing Yards / Game
27
26

EPA

EPA / Play
22
17
EPA / Pass
26
7
EPA / Rush
6
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
25
Interceptions / Game
30
4
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
8
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
18
4th Down Efficiency
18
23
RZ Efficiency
2
23
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Packers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
2
31
Yards / Game
6
30
Passing Yards / Game
3
32
Rushing Yards / Game
10
16

EPA

EPA / Play
3
29
EPA / Pass
2
31
EPA / Rush
12
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
13
Interceptions / Game
2
16
Fumbles / Game
10
21
Turnover EPA / Game
29
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
22
4th Down Efficiency
22
30
RZ Efficiency
11
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-43
L
L
O
12/29
-5
L
L
O
09/07
-3
L
L
U
09/14
8
W
W
O
09/22
8
W
W
O
09/28
-21
L
L
O
10/05
-7
L
L
O
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/19
-13
L
L
U
10/26
-28
L
L
O
GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
5-3-2
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
5
W
W
O
01/05
-3
L
P
U
09/04
-20
L
L
O
09/14
7
W
P
O
09/21
-12
L
L
U
09/28
21
W
W
O
10/02
32
W
W
O
10/12
3
W
W
O
10/19
21
W
W
O
10/26
-21
L
L
O