CHIBears
3-5
14
TBD
Lambeau Field
34°F
5 mph
55
GBPackers
5-3
TBD
Lambeau Field
34°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
7
7
14
Packers
14
28
6
1
49
Spread
-9.5
Total
OVER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
311
451
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
4.6
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.36
+0.29
Passing Yards
256
--
Comp/Att
23/40(57%)
19/32(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.53
+0.54
Rushing Yards
55
132
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
2.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
25%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-19.43
-5.25
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-27
--
Sack EPA
-12.60
--
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
163
50
Penalty EPA
-9.76
-4.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model76.1%
Spread Pick
Bears+9.5
Expected Value
+5.1%
Cover Probability
55.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,610
Away nfelo
1,489
Home Field
+3.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.7
Home QB Adjustment
+22.8
Away QB Adjustment
+9.1
Market Regression
+16.0
Final Difference
201.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+22.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
14
Yards / Game
20
15
Passing Yards / Game
18
28
Rushing Yards / Game
27
26
EPA
EPA / Play
22
17
EPA / Pass
26
7
EPA / Rush
6
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
25
Interceptions / Game
30
4
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
8
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
18
4th Down Efficiency
18
23
RZ Efficiency
2
23
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
31
Yards / Game
6
30
Passing Yards / Game
3
32
Rushing Yards / Game
10
16
EPA
EPA / Play
3
29
EPA / Pass
2
31
EPA / Rush
12
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
13
Interceptions / Game
2
16
Fumbles / Game
10
21
Turnover EPA / Game
29
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
22
4th Down Efficiency
22
30
RZ Efficiency
11
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
5-3-2
ATS
8-2
O/U