nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ packers week 12, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

CHI logo
CHIBears
5-5
25
TBD
Lambeau Field
37°F
13 mph
41
GBPackers
7-3
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
37°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
7
0
15
25
Packers
6
15
14
0
35

Spread

GB logo
-8

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
352
393
Total Plays
66
68
Yards / Play
5.3
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.32
Passing Yards
231
--
Comp/Att
26/47(55%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.53
Rushing Yards
121
182
Rush Attempts
16
39
Yards / Rush
7.6
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.30
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
26
28
Passing 1st downs
19
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
14
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
75%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.58
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-13
--
Sack EPA
-9.63
--
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
45
17
Penalty EPA
-4.00
-3.10

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+147
Home nfelo
1,580
Away nfelo
1,453
Home Field
-1.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.9
Home QB Adjustment
+28.3
Away QB Adjustment
+7.4
Market Regression
-7.4
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
Value
Ptile
11/17
-5.3
18
11/24
-1.7
40
11/28
5.4
85
12/05
8.0
93
12/15
-2.8
32
12/22
-5.1
19
12/29
-2.4
35
09/13
3.0
67
09/20
-6.1
10
09/27
-0.9
38
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+28.3
Value
Ptile
09/13
12.9
98
09/20
1.1
52
09/27
6.1
84
10/05
9.0
95
10/18
-12.8
1
10/25
6.5
86
11/01
5.9
83
11/05
9.8
96
11/15
4.1
74
11/22
6.3
85

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Bears logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
15
Yards / Game
28
7
Passing Yards / Game
14
19
Rushing Yards / Game
26
10

EPA

EPA / Play
22
17
EPA / Pass
24
11
EPA / Rush
20
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
29
Interceptions / Game
26
15
Fumbles / Game
9
23
Turnover EPA / Game
20
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
14
4th Down Efficiency
14
19
RZ Efficiency
21
13
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Packers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
1
13
Yards / Game
3
11
Passing Yards / Game
24
22
Rushing Yards / Game
8
14

EPA

EPA / Play
1
10
EPA / Pass
1
20
EPA / Rush
5
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
17
Interceptions / Game
1
28
Fumbles / Game
7
21
Turnover EPA / Game
32
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
11
4th Down Efficiency
9
18
RZ Efficiency
1
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
4
W
W
O
09/20
4
W
L
U
09/27
4
W
W
O
10/04
-8
L
L
U
10/08
1
W
W
U
10/18
7
W
W
U
10/26
-14
L
L
U
11/01
-3
L
W
O
11/08
-7
L
L
U
11/16
-6
L
L
U
GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
9
W
W
O
09/20
21
W
W
O
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/05
14
W
W
U
10/18
-28
L
L
U
10/25
15
W
W
U
11/01
-6
L
L
O
11/05
17
W
W
O
11/15
4
W
L
U
11/22
-3
L
L
O