CHIBears
5-5
25
TBD
Lambeau Field
37°F
13 mph
41
GBPackers
7-3
TBD
Lambeau Field
37°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
7
0
15
25
Packers
6
15
14
0
35
Spread
-8
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
352
393
Total Plays
66
68
Yards / Play
5.3
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.32
Passing Yards
231
--
Comp/Att
26/47(55%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.53
Rushing Yards
121
182
Rush Attempts
16
39
Yards / Rush
7.6
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.30
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
28
Passing 1st downs
19
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
14
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
75%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.58
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-13
--
Sack EPA
-9.63
--
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
45
17
Penalty EPA
-4.00
-3.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+146
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,455
Home Field
-1.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.9
Home QB Adjustment
+28.3
Away QB Adjustment
+7.4
Market Regression
-7.4
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+28.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
15
Yards / Game
28
7
Passing Yards / Game
14
19
Rushing Yards / Game
26
10
EPA
EPA / Play
22
17
EPA / Pass
24
11
EPA / Rush
20
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
29
Interceptions / Game
26
15
Fumbles / Game
9
23
Turnover EPA / Game
20
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
14
4th Down Efficiency
14
19
RZ Efficiency
21
13
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
13
Yards / Game
3
11
Passing Yards / Game
24
22
Rushing Yards / Game
8
14
EPA
EPA / Play
1
10
EPA / Pass
1
20
EPA / Rush
5
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
17
Interceptions / Game
1
28
Fumbles / Game
7
21
Turnover EPA / Game
32
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
11
4th Down Efficiency
9
18
RZ Efficiency
1
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U