CHIBears
4-8
30
TBD
Lambeau Field
36°F
8 mph
45
GBPackers
9-3
TBD
Lambeau Field
36°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
18
0
3
24
Packers
0
15
17
7
39
Spread
-11.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
347
439
Total Plays
58
64
Yards / Play
6.0
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.11
Passing Yards
210
320
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
29/37(78%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.43
Rushing Yards
137
119
Rush Attempts
23
24
Yards / Rush
6.0
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
27
Passing 1st downs
7
19
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.82
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-21
Sack EPA
-6.16
-5.10
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
41
30
Penalty EPA
-6.19
-3.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market82.6%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+306
Home nfelo
1,645
Away nfelo
1,407
Home Field
+31.6
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
-17.1
Home Bye Adj
+10.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+36.1
Home QB Adjustment
+13.9
Away QB Adjustment
-22.2
Market Regression
-47.7
Final Difference
270.6
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-22.2
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
10
Yards / Game
24
8
Passing Yards / Game
21
15
Rushing Yards / Game
15
10
EPA
EPA / Play
27
22
EPA / Pass
30
7
EPA / Rush
18
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
20
Interceptions / Game
29
7
Fumbles / Game
20
16
Turnover EPA / Game
4
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
24
4th Down Efficiency
28
7
RZ Efficiency
30
23
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
21
Yards / Game
12
5
Passing Yards / Game
8
6
Rushing Yards / Game
19
22
EPA
EPA / Play
3
16
EPA / Pass
3
20
EPA / Rush
7
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
2
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
6
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
11
4th Down Efficiency
9
11
RZ Efficiency
18
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Packers
8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
3-7
O/U