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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ packers week 14, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Win total projections and results

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CHI logo
CHIBears
4-8
30
TBD
Lambeau Field
36°F
8 mph
45
GBPackers
9-3
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
36°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
18
0
3
24
Packers
0
15
17
7
39

Spread

GB logo
-11.5

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
347
439
Total Plays
58
64
Yards / Play
6.0
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.11
Passing Yards
210
320
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
29/37(78%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.43
Rushing Yards
137
119
Rush Attempts
23
24
Yards / Rush
6.0
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
16
27
Passing 1st downs
7
19
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.82
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-21
Sack EPA
-6.16
-5.10
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
41
30
Penalty EPA
-6.19
-3.42

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5

Win Probability

Market82.6%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+307
Home nfelo
1,642
Away nfelo
1,403
Home Field
+31.6
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
-17.1
Home Bye Adj
+10.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+36.1
Home QB Adjustment
+13.9
Away QB Adjustment
-22.2
Market Regression
-47.7
Final Difference
270.6
Model Spread
-11.5

Quarterbacks

J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-22.2
Value
Ptile
09/26
-18.2
0
10/03
-5.6
16
10/10
-5.7
16
10/17
-4.1
24
10/24
-9.3
5
10/31
2.9
74
11/08
0.6
57
11/21
-5.6
16
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.9
Value
Ptile
09/20
3.4
77
09/26
3.4
77
10/03
1.6
64
10/10
2.4
71
10/17
2.7
73
10/24
4.5
82
10/28
-0.1
52
11/14
-1.6
41
11/21
10.6
97
11/28
6.7
90

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Bears logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
27
10
Yards / Game
24
8
Passing Yards / Game
21
15
Rushing Yards / Game
15
10

EPA

EPA / Play
27
22
EPA / Pass
30
7
EPA / Rush
18
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
20
Interceptions / Game
29
7
Fumbles / Game
20
16
Turnover EPA / Game
4
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
24
4th Down Efficiency
28
7
RZ Efficiency
30
23
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Packers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
10
21
Yards / Game
12
5
Passing Yards / Game
8
6
Rushing Yards / Game
19
22

EPA

EPA / Play
3
16
EPA / Pass
3
20
EPA / Rush
7
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
2
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
6
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
11
4th Down Efficiency
9
11
RZ Efficiency
18
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
-20
L
L
U
10/03
10
W
W
U
10/10
11
W
W
U
10/17
-10
L
L
U
10/24
-35
L
L
U
10/31
-11
L
L
O
11/08
-2
L
W
O
11/21
-3
L
W
U
11/25
2
W
P
U
12/05
-11
L
L
O
GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
2
W
W
O
10/03
10
W
W
U
10/10
3
W
W
U
10/17
10
W
W
U
10/24
14
W
W
U
10/28
3
W
W
U
11/07
-6
L
W
U
11/14
17
W
W
U
11/21
-3
L
L
O
11/28
8
W
W
O