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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ packers week 15, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CHI logo
CHIBears
7-6
13
TBD
Lambeau Field
11°F
7 mph
21
GBPackers
10-3
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
11°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
0
10
13
Packers
7
0
14
0
21

Spread

GB logo
-4.5

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
415
292
Total Plays
83
58
Yards / Play
5.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.14
Passing Yards
319
192
Comp/Att
29/53(55%)
16/33(48%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.14
Rushing Yards
96
100
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
20
12
Passing 1st downs
15
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
45%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
20
15
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.40
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-15
-11
Sack EPA
-4.99
-2.81
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
35
30
Penalty EPA
-3.13
-6.04

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+68
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,514
Home Field
+26.1
Base HFA
+47.5
Divisional Adj
-21.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.2
Home QB Adjustment
+1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+5.7
Market Regression
+3.5
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
Value
Ptile
09/23
1.3
62
09/29
-5.6
17
10/20
1.3
63
10/27
-4.9
20
11/03
-7.5
10
11/10
-2.8
32
11/17
-5.3
18
11/24
-1.7
40
11/28
5.4
85
12/05
8.0
93
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Value
Ptile
09/26
7.8
92
10/06
-2.4
35
10/14
1.4
64
10/20
15.6
99
10/27
3.9
78
11/03
-2.7
34
11/10
-1.8
40
11/24
-4.3
24
12/01
7.0
90
12/08
-3.3
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Bears logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
12
Yards / Game
29
18
Passing Yards / Game
18
8
Rushing Yards / Game
27
26

EPA

EPA / Play
28
18
EPA / Pass
24
8
EPA / Rush
29
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
20
Interceptions / Game
16
5
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
22
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
13
4th Down Efficiency
29
15
RZ Efficiency
24
11
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Packers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
14
4
Yards / Game
17
8
Passing Yards / Game
13
11
Rushing Yards / Game
15
9

EPA

EPA / Play
7
6
EPA / Pass
10
11
EPA / Rush
9
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
12
Interceptions / Game
1
25
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
31
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
6
4th Down Efficiency
8
23
RZ Efficiency
2
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
10
W
W
U
10/06
-3
L
L
O
10/20
-11
L
L
O
10/27
-1
L
L
U
11/03
-8
L
L
U
11/10
7
W
W
U
11/17
-10
L
L
U
11/24
5
W
L
U
11/28
4
W
L
O
12/05
7
W
W
O
GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
-7
L
L
O
10/06
10
W
W
O
10/14
1
W
L
U
10/20
18
W
W
O
10/27
7
W
W
O
11/03
-15
L
L
U
11/10
8
W
W
U
11/24
-29
L
L
U
12/01
18
W
W
O
12/08
5
W
L
U