CHIBears
7-6
13
TBD
Lambeau Field
11°F
7 mph
21
GBPackers
10-3
TBD
Lambeau Field
11°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
0
10
13
Packers
7
0
14
0
21
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
415
292
Total Plays
83
58
Yards / Play
5.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.14
Passing Yards
319
192
Comp/Att
29/53(55%)
16/33(48%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.14
Rushing Yards
96
100
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
12
Passing 1st downs
15
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
45%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
20
15
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.40
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-15
-11
Sack EPA
-4.99
-2.81
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
35
30
Penalty EPA
-3.13
-6.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,561
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+25.9
Base HFA
+47.2
Divisional Adj
-21.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.2
Home QB Adjustment
+1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+5.7
Market Regression
+3.7
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
12
Yards / Game
29
18
Passing Yards / Game
18
8
Rushing Yards / Game
27
26
EPA
EPA / Play
28
18
EPA / Pass
24
8
EPA / Rush
29
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
20
Interceptions / Game
16
5
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
22
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
13
4th Down Efficiency
29
15
RZ Efficiency
24
11
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
4
Yards / Game
17
8
Passing Yards / Game
13
11
Rushing Yards / Game
15
9
EPA
EPA / Play
7
6
EPA / Pass
10
11
EPA / Rush
9
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
12
Interceptions / Game
1
25
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
31
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
6
4th Down Efficiency
8
23
RZ Efficiency
2
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U