CHIBears
7-7
21
TBD
Lambeau Field
37°F
13 mph
35
GBPackers
13-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
37°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
7
11
21
Packers
7
7
14
7
35
Spread
-13.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
443
363
Total Plays
71
51
Yards / Play
6.2
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.43
Passing Yards
--
282
Comp/Att
19/28(68%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.7
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.68
Rushing Yards
201
81
Rush Attempts
43
21
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
50%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.08
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-1
Sack EPA
--
-1.78
Penalties
6
--
Penalty Yards
28
--
Penalty EPA
-4.35
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model83.5%
Spread Pick
Bears+13.5
Expected Value
+2.2%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+194
Home nfelo
1,711
Away nfelo
1,559
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.6
Home QB Adjustment
+9.8
Away QB Adjustment
+2.2
Market Regression
+22.5
Final Difference
281.5
Model Spread
-12.0
Quarterbacks
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
22
Yards / Game
25
32
Passing Yards / Game
30
32
Rushing Yards / Game
9
13
EPA
EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
30
23
EPA / Rush
19
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
10
Interceptions / Game
25
1
Fumbles / Game
22
24
Turnover EPA / Game
8
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
27
4th Down Efficiency
30
3
RZ Efficiency
12
17
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
14
Yards / Game
3
17
Passing Yards / Game
1
22
Rushing Yards / Game
25
5
EPA
EPA / Play
2
4
EPA / Pass
1
9
EPA / Rush
16
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
5
Interceptions / Game
2
5
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
31
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
9
4th Down Efficiency
12
14
RZ Efficiency
1
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U