CHIBears
2-2
24
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
60°F
7 mph
31
CARPanthers
2-2
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
60°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
14
7
3
0
24
Panthers
1
7
7
10
25
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
347
322
Total Plays
62
63
Yards / Play
5.6
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.16
Passing Yards
262
231
Comp/Att
28/36(78%)
19/35(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.20
Rushing Yards
85
91
Rush Attempts
22
26
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
22
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-15.99
-14.34
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-27
-24
Sack EPA
-7.14
-9.75
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
79
30
Penalty EPA
-10.84
-4.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model57.6%
Spread Pick
Panthers-1.5
Expected Value
+15.3%
Cover Probability
60.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+103
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+64.1
Home QB Adjustment
+73.2
Away QB Adjustment
+9.1
Market Regression
+10.3
Final Difference
52.9
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+73.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
20
Yards / Game
20
6
Passing Yards / Game
18
19
Rushing Yards / Game
27
11
EPA
EPA / Play
22
16
EPA / Pass
26
14
EPA / Rush
6
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
14
Interceptions / Game
30
15
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
8
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
21
4th Down Efficiency
18
14
RZ Efficiency
2
29
Panthers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
31
Yards / Game
15
30
Passing Yards / Game
20
32
Rushing Yards / Game
7
16
EPA
EPA / Play
17
29
EPA / Pass
19
31
EPA / Rush
11
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
13
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
14
21
Turnover EPA / Game
12
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
22
4th Down Efficiency
10
30
RZ Efficiency
25
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Panthers
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U