CHIBears
3-4
23
TBD
Gillette Stadium
54°F
14 mph
51
NEPatriots
5-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
54°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
8
8
23
Patriots
7
25
7
6
45
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
388
487
Total Plays
66
71
Yards / Play
5.9
6.9
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.41
Passing Yards
235
365
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
33/38(87%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
9.6
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.86
Rushing Yards
153
122
Rush Attempts
26
32
Yards / Rush
5.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.27
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
32
Passing 1st downs
13
25
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
36%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
100%
57%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.19
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-11
Sack EPA
-9.96
-2.10
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
41
38
Penalty EPA
-8.15
-3.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+183
Home nfelo
1,588
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-0.1
Home QB Adjustment
+8.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.7
Market Regression
-29.6
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
8
Yards / Game
20
12
Passing Yards / Game
18
21
Rushing Yards / Game
27
13
EPA
EPA / Play
22
9
EPA / Pass
26
11
EPA / Rush
6
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
28
Interceptions / Game
30
10
Fumbles / Game
22
23
Turnover EPA / Game
8
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
13
4th Down Efficiency
18
12
RZ Efficiency
2
16
Patriots Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
31
Yards / Game
10
30
Passing Yards / Game
10
32
Rushing Yards / Game
19
16
EPA
EPA / Play
1
29
EPA / Pass
4
31
EPA / Rush
5
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
13
Interceptions / Game
6
16
Fumbles / Game
3
21
Turnover EPA / Game
30
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
22
4th Down Efficiency
3
30
RZ Efficiency
5
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U