CHIBears
-
14
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
034
LARRams
-
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
7
0
14
Rams
10
3
14
7
34
Spread
-9.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
322
386
Total Plays
69
50
Yards / Play
4.7
7.7
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.28
Passing Yards
188
312
Comp/Att
29/40(73%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
12.0
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.72
Rushing Yards
134
74
Rush Attempts
26
23
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
45%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.83
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-28
-9
Sack EPA
-8.35
-1.64
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
35
36
Penalty EPA
-6.77
-6.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+166
Home nfelo
1,579
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+76.5
Base HFA
+44.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
+16.1
Net QB Adjustment
+11.9
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
-11.2
Market Regression
+50.9
Final Difference
221.9
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.2
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
9
Yards / Game
24
13
Passing Yards / Game
21
27
Rushing Yards / Game
15
5
EPA
EPA / Play
27
6
EPA / Pass
30
9
EPA / Rush
18
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
28
Interceptions / Game
29
5
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
4
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
7
4th Down Efficiency
28
14
RZ Efficiency
30
9
Rams Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
21
Yards / Game
7
5
Passing Yards / Game
1
6
Rushing Yards / Game
27
22
EPA
EPA / Play
9
16
EPA / Pass
2
20
EPA / Rush
31
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
2
Interceptions / Game
26
29
Fumbles / Game
11
11
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
11
4th Down Efficiency
17
11
RZ Efficiency
17
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Rams
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U