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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ rams week 1, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CHI logo
CHIBears
-
14
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
34
LARRams
-
LAR logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
7
0
14
Rams
10
3
14
7
34

Spread

LAR logo
-9.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
322
386
Total Plays
69
50
Yards / Play
4.7
7.7
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.28
Passing Yards
188
312
Comp/Att
29/40(73%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
12.0
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.72
Rushing Yards
134
74
Rush Attempts
26
23
Yards / Rush
5.2
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
45%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.83
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-28
-9
Sack EPA
-8.35
-1.64
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
35
36
Penalty EPA
-6.77
-6.20

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model78.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+169
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+76.7
Base HFA
+44.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
+16.1
Net QB Adjustment
+11.9
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
-11.2
Market Regression
+51.1
Final Difference
222.1
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-11.2
Value
Ptile
12/29
-2.0
38
10/19
-5.3
14
10/25
-13.1
1
11/22
1.7
56
11/26
-3.0
24
12/08
2.6
64
12/13
-1.2
36
12/20
-0.3
43
12/27
5.1
78
01/03
-5.9
11
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Value
Ptile
11/01
0.3
48
11/08
-3.0
24
11/15
6.1
83
11/22
-9.9
4
11/26
-3.8
20
12/06
5.5
80
12/13
1.0
51
12/20
2.2
60
12/26
-7.1
8
01/03
3.8
72

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Rams Defense
Bears logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
27
9
Yards / Game
24
13
Passing Yards / Game
21
27
Rushing Yards / Game
15
5

EPA

EPA / Play
27
6
EPA / Pass
30
9
EPA / Rush
18
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
28
Interceptions / Game
29
5
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
4
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
7
4th Down Efficiency
28
14
RZ Efficiency
30
9
Rams Offense vs Bears Defense
Rams logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
6
21
Yards / Game
7
5
Passing Yards / Game
1
6
Rushing Yards / Game
27
22

EPA

EPA / Play
9
16
EPA / Pass
2
20
EPA / Rush
31
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
2
Interceptions / Game
26
29
Fumbles / Game
11
11
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
11
4th Down Efficiency
17
11
RZ Efficiency
17
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
-3
L
W
O
11/08
-7
L
L
U
11/16
-6
L
L
U
11/29
-16
L
L
O
12/06
-4
L
L
O
12/13
29
W
W
U
12/20
6
W
W
O
12/27
24
W
W
O
01/03
-19
L
L
O
01/10
-12
L
L
U
LAR logo

Rams

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
7
W
W
U
11/23
3
W
W
O
11/29
-3
L
L
U
12/06
10
W
W
O
12/10
21
W
W
U
12/20
-3
L
L
U
12/27
-11
L
L
U
01/03
11
W
W
U
01/09
10
W
W
O
01/16
-14
L
L
O