CHIBears
3-5
37
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
013
LARRams
4-4
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
10
14
0
13
37
Rams
10
0
3
0
13
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
397
285
Total Plays
63
59
Yards / Play
6.3
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.44
Passing Yards
244
191
Comp/Att
19/24(79%)
17/37(46%)
Yards / Pass
10.2
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.46
-0.52
Rushing Yards
153
94
Rush Attempts
37
21
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
12
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
25%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.87
-7.33
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-9
Sack EPA
-3.28
-1.89
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
44
57
Penalty EPA
-3.53
-8.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+149
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,435
Home Field
+83.3
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-29.3
Home QB Adjustment
-11.2
Away QB Adjustment
+18.1
Market Regression
-26.4
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.1
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-11.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
12
Yards / Game
19
23
Passing Yards / Game
11
18
Rushing Yards / Game
11
21
EPA
EPA / Play
14
6
EPA / Pass
17
10
EPA / Rush
10
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
32
Interceptions / Game
11
17
Fumbles / Game
21
5
Turnover EPA / Game
18
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
6
4th Down Efficiency
5
3
RZ Efficiency
27
2
Rams Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
20
Yards / Game
32
14
Passing Yards / Game
32
10
Rushing Yards / Game
7
22
EPA
EPA / Play
32
28
EPA / Pass
32
22
EPA / Rush
24
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
20
Interceptions / Game
10
30
Fumbles / Game
15
26
Turnover EPA / Game
21
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
29
4th Down Efficiency
31
9
RZ Efficiency
21
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Rams
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U