CHIBears
2-6
17
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
024
NOSaints
4-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
7
3
0
17
Saints
7
7
3
7
24
Spread
+9
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
368
301
Total Plays
64
62
Yards / Play
5.8
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.27
-0.19
Passing Yards
212
--
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
26/35(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.10
Rushing Yards
156
87
Rush Attempts
32
27
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.45
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-22.06
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-5.49
--
Penalties
8
1
Penalty Yards
71
--
Penalty EPA
-9.64
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model79.6%
Spread Pick
Saints-9.0
Expected Value
+10.2%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+267
Home nfelo
1,522
Away nfelo
1,384
Home Field
+58.6
Base HFA
+43.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+71.1
Home QB Adjustment
+1.8
Away QB Adjustment
-69.2
Market Regression
+33.5
Final Difference
236.1
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bagent
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-69.2
Value
Ptile
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
6
Yards / Game
21
13
Passing Yards / Game
23
16
Rushing Yards / Game
2
22
EPA
EPA / Play
23
3
EPA / Pass
25
5
EPA / Rush
3
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
24
Interceptions / Game
22
3
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
10
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
4
4th Down Efficiency
16
3
RZ Efficiency
14
9
Saints Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
19
Yards / Game
13
12
Passing Yards / Game
4
9
Rushing Yards / Game
21
1
EPA
EPA / Play
19
8
EPA / Pass
14
18
EPA / Rush
24
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
7
Interceptions / Game
10
1
Fumbles / Game
10
26
Turnover EPA / Game
26
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
29
4th Down Efficiency
22
4
RZ Efficiency
18
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U