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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ saints week 9, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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CHI logo
CHIBears
2-6
17
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
24
NOSaints
4-4
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
7
3
0
17
Saints
7
7
3
7
24

Spread

CHI logo
+9

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
368
301
Total Plays
64
62
Yards / Play
5.8
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.27
-0.19
Passing Yards
212
--
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
26/35(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.10
Rushing Yards
156
87
Rush Attempts
32
27
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.45
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-22.06
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-5.49
--
Penalties
8
1
Penalty Yards
71
--
Penalty EPA
-9.64
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market77.7%
Model79.6%
Spread Pick
NO logo
Saints-9.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.2%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+268
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,384
Home Field
+58.5
Base HFA
+43.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+71.9
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
-70.0
Market Regression
+33.4
Final Difference
236.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

T. Bagent headshot

T. Bagent

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-70.0
Value
Ptile
10/22
1.0
55
10/29
-2.3
33
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Value
Ptile
12/18
-0.5
49
12/24
-8.8
4
09/10
-1.7
39
09/18
-7.7
9
09/24
-3.8
25
10/01
-5.1
19
10/08
1.8
61
10/15
1.5
59
10/19
0.4
52
10/29
4.7
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Saints Defense
Bears logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
19
6
Yards / Game
21
13
Passing Yards / Game
23
16
Rushing Yards / Game
2
22

EPA

EPA / Play
23
3
EPA / Pass
25
5
EPA / Rush
3
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
24
Interceptions / Game
22
3
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
10
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
4
4th Down Efficiency
16
3
RZ Efficiency
14
9
Saints Offense vs Bears Defense
Saints logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
10
19
Yards / Game
13
12
Passing Yards / Game
4
9
Rushing Yards / Game
21
1

EPA

EPA / Play
19
8
EPA / Pass
14
18
EPA / Rush
24
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
7
Interceptions / Game
10
1
Fumbles / Game
10
26
Turnover EPA / Game
26
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
29
4th Down Efficiency
22
4
RZ Efficiency
18
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-31
L
L
U
01/08
-16
L
L
U
09/10
-18
L
L
O
09/17
-10
L
L
O
09/24
-31
L
L
O
10/01
-3
L
P
O
10/05
20
W
W
O
10/15
-6
L
L
U
10/22
18
W
W
O
10/29
-17
L
L
U
NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
10
W
W
U
01/08
-3
L
L
U
09/10
1
W
L
U
09/18
3
W
P
U
09/24
-1
L
L
U
10/01
-17
L
L
U
10/08
34
W
W
U
10/15
-7
L
L
U
10/19
-7
L
L
O
10/29
11
W
W
O