CHIBears
2-0
40
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
56°F
5 mph
23
PITSteelers
0-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
56°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
17
1
3
7
28
Steelers
0
10
10
3
23
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
258
459
Total Plays
60
65
Yards / Play
4.3
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.25
Passing Yards
151
379
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
26/41(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
9.2
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.30
Rushing Yards
107
80
Rush Attempts
28
21
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
7
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
33%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-31.46
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-8
-27
Sack EPA
-2.47
-17.84
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
25
59
Penalty EPA
-3.91
-6.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model53.9%
Spread Pick
Steelers+2.5
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+3
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-16.2
Home QB Adjustment
-5.0
Away QB Adjustment
+11.2
Market Regression
-11.5
Final Difference
-27.5
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
13
Yards / Game
7
13
Passing Yards / Game
7
14
Rushing Yards / Game
15
21
EPA
EPA / Play
7
13
EPA / Pass
6
10
EPA / Rush
8
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
14
Interceptions / Game
12
29
Fumbles / Game
17
16
Turnover EPA / Game
11
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
20
4th Down Efficiency
8
17
RZ Efficiency
7
19
Steelers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
30
Yards / Game
20
29
Passing Yards / Game
14
13
Rushing Yards / Game
27
32
EPA
EPA / Play
18
31
EPA / Pass
9
16
EPA / Rush
29
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
30
Interceptions / Game
13
7
Fumbles / Game
17
20
Turnover EPA / Game
16
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
25
4th Down Efficiency
9
30
RZ Efficiency
20
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Steelers
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U