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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ steelers week 3, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CHI logo
CHIBears
2-0
40
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
56°F
5 mph
23
PITSteelers
0-2
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
56°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
17
1
3
7
28
Steelers
0
10
10
3
23

Spread

CHI logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
258
459
Total Plays
60
65
Yards / Play
4.3
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.25
Passing Yards
151
379
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
26/41(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
9.2
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.30
Rushing Yards
107
80
Rush Attempts
28
21
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
7
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
33%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-31.46
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-8
-27
Sack EPA
-2.47
-17.84
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
25
59
Penalty EPA
-3.91
-6.21

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model54.0%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+2
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-16.2
Home QB Adjustment
-5.0
Away QB Adjustment
+11.2
Market Regression
-11.7
Final Difference
-27.7
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
Value
Ptile
11/04
3.0
70
11/11
-5.0
19
11/25
-0.7
45
12/02
6.8
89
12/09
-5.2
17
12/16
-6.0
13
12/23
-0.8
43
12/30
1.1
57
09/08
4.2
79
09/15
3.4
73
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
Value
Ptile
10/21
0.6
54
10/28
6.4
88
11/04
-2.0
35
11/12
-2.8
31
12/09
2.4
64
12/16
0.1
51
12/23
-6.6
11
12/30
0.3
51
09/08
-5.5
17
09/16
-1.6
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Steelers Defense
Bears logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
13
Yards / Game
7
13
Passing Yards / Game
7
14
Rushing Yards / Game
15
21

EPA

EPA / Play
7
13
EPA / Pass
6
10
EPA / Rush
8
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
14
Interceptions / Game
12
29
Fumbles / Game
17
16
Turnover EPA / Game
11
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
20
4th Down Efficiency
8
17
RZ Efficiency
7
19
Steelers Offense vs Bears Defense
Steelers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
16
30
Yards / Game
20
29
Passing Yards / Game
14
13
Rushing Yards / Game
27
32

EPA

EPA / Play
18
31
EPA / Pass
9
16
EPA / Rush
29
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
30
Interceptions / Game
13
7
Fumbles / Game
17
20
Turnover EPA / Game
16
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
25
4th Down Efficiency
9
30
RZ Efficiency
20
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

5-5
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
-7
L
L
U
11/19
-25
L
L
O
11/25
18
W
W
U
12/02
-6
L
L
O
12/09
-7
L
L
U
12/16
-8
L
L
U
12/23
15
W
W
O
12/30
2
W
L
O
09/08
3
W
P
O
09/15
1
W
L
O
PIT logo

Steelers

3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
3
W
L
U
11/18
-3
L
P
U
11/25
-6
L
L
O
12/02
3
W
W
O
12/09
-10
L
L
O
12/16
-3
L
L
O
12/23
-3
L
L
U
12/30
14
W
W
U
09/08
-7
L
L
U
09/16
-10
L
L
U