CHIBears
-
14
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
023
HOUTexans
-
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
7
0
0
14
Texans
0
10
3
10
23
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
258
344
Total Plays
54
72
Yards / Play
4.8
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.28
-0.05
Passing Yards
185
215
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
22/35(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.13
Rushing Yards
73
129
Rush Attempts
20
35
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
17
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
31%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
4
12
3rd Down Attempts
13
20
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.65
-4.35
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-31
-16
Sack EPA
-8.08
-2.65
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
30
69
Penalty EPA
-2.59
-5.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+123
Home nfelo
1,486
Away nfelo
1,445
Home Field
+78.5
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.7
Home QB Adjustment
+4.4
Away QB Adjustment
-0.4
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
12
Yards / Game
14
1
Passing Yards / Game
17
7
Rushing Yards / Game
16
11
EPA
EPA / Play
26
3
EPA / Pass
22
4
EPA / Rush
22
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
22
Interceptions / Game
28
13
Fumbles / Game
25
25
Turnover EPA / Game
4
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
7
4th Down Efficiency
31
3
RZ Efficiency
22
16
Texans Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
23
Yards / Game
29
14
Passing Yards / Game
28
2
Rushing Yards / Game
7
26
EPA
EPA / Play
31
26
EPA / Pass
29
24
EPA / Rush
26
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
25
Interceptions / Game
25
29
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
11
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
22
4th Down Efficiency
29
28
RZ Efficiency
31
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U