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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ texans week 1, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CHI logo
CHIBears
-
14
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
23
HOUTexans
-
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
7
0
0
14
Texans
0
10
3
10
23

Spread

HOU logo
-6

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
258
344
Total Plays
54
72
Yards / Play
4.8
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.28
-0.05
Passing Yards
185
215
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
22/35(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.13
Rushing Yards
73
129
Rush Attempts
20
35
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
14
17
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
31%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
4
12
3rd Down Attempts
13
20
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.65
-4.35
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-31
-16
Sack EPA
-8.08
-2.65
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
30
69
Penalty EPA
-2.59
-5.56

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+124
Home nfelo
1,486
Away nfelo
1,445
Home Field
+79.5
Base HFA
+59.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.7
Home QB Adjustment
+4.4
Away QB Adjustment
-0.4
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
Value
Ptile
11/01
3.7
77
11/09
3.1
74
11/15
7.1
91
11/22
-1.0
44
11/26
-0.1
50
12/06
-4.8
17
12/13
1.8
64
12/20
-3.1
28
12/27
0.8
55
01/03
-5.0
15
B. Osweiler headshot

B. Osweiler

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
Value
Ptile
11/22
-0.4
49
11/29
-3.3
27
12/06
-4.4
18
12/13
-1.0
44
12/20
2.1
66
12/28
2.6
69
01/03
-3.3
26

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Texans Defense
Bears logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
29
12
Yards / Game
14
1
Passing Yards / Game
17
7
Rushing Yards / Game
16
11

EPA

EPA / Play
26
3
EPA / Pass
22
4
EPA / Rush
22
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
22
Interceptions / Game
28
13
Fumbles / Game
25
25
Turnover EPA / Game
4
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
7
4th Down Efficiency
31
3
RZ Efficiency
22
16
Texans Offense vs Bears Defense
Texans logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
28
23
Yards / Game
29
14
Passing Yards / Game
28
2
Rushing Yards / Game
7
26

EPA

EPA / Play
31
26
EPA / Pass
29
24
EPA / Rush
26
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
25
Interceptions / Game
25
29
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
11
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
22
4th Down Efficiency
29
28
RZ Efficiency
31
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
-3
L
L
U
11/09
3
W
W
U
11/15
24
W
W
O
11/22
-2
L
W
U
11/26
4
W
W
U
12/06
-6
L
L
O
12/13
-3
L
L
O
12/20
-21
L
L
O
12/27
5
W
W
O
01/03
-4
L
L
U
HOU logo

Texans

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
14
W
W
U
11/16
4
W
W
U
11/22
7
W
W
O
11/29
18
W
W
U
12/06
-9
L
L
O
12/13
-21
L
L
U
12/20
6
W
W
U
12/27
28
W
W
O
01/03
24
W
W
U
01/09
-30
L
L
U