CHIBears
6-1
51
TBD
Nissan Stadium
50°F
6 mph
20
TENTitans
3-5
TBD
Nissan Stadium
50°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
16
3
6
14
39
Titans
0
3
7
8
18
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
341
Total Plays
65
56
Yards / Play
5.6
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.64
Passing Yards
205
182
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
20/36(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.79
Rushing Yards
160
159
Rush Attempts
36
18
Yards / Rush
4.4
8.8
EPA / Rush
-0.00
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
12
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
43%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
43%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
7
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
4
Turnover EPA
-6.57
-28.88
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-24
-20
Sack EPA
-9.00
-5.09
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
37
68
Penalty EPA
-4.08
-16.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model66.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-78
Home nfelo
1,425
Away nfelo
1,564
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.6
Home QB Adjustment
-9.3
Away QB Adjustment
-7.7
Market Regression
-7.8
Final Difference
-116.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.7
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-9.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
32
Yards / Game
28
25
Passing Yards / Game
26
27
Rushing Yards / Game
10
23
EPA
EPA / Play
24
24
EPA / Pass
26
23
EPA / Rush
18
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
11
Interceptions / Game
18
5
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
22
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
22
4th Down Efficiency
25
9
RZ Efficiency
22
30
Titans Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
2
Yards / Game
26
5
Passing Yards / Game
25
24
Rushing Yards / Game
21
7
EPA
EPA / Play
28
1
EPA / Pass
28
1
EPA / Rush
23
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
8
Interceptions / Game
18
1
Fumbles / Game
23
1
Turnover EPA / Game
8
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
5
4th Down Efficiency
27
26
RZ Efficiency
22
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Titans
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U