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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ titans week 9, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CHI logo
CHIBears
6-1
51
TBD
Nissan Stadium
50°F
6 mph
20
TENTitans
3-5
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
50°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
16
3
6
14
39
Titans
0
3
7
8
18

Spread

CHI logo
-5

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
365
341
Total Plays
65
56
Yards / Play
5.6
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.64
Passing Yards
205
182
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
20/36(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.79
Rushing Yards
160
159
Rush Attempts
36
18
Yards / Rush
4.4
8.8
EPA / Rush
-0.00
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
21
12
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
43%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
43%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
7
--
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
4
Turnover EPA
-6.57
-28.88
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-24
-20
Sack EPA
-9.00
-5.09
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
37
68
Penalty EPA
-4.08
-16.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market67.5%
Model66.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-79
Home nfelo
1,423
Away nfelo
1,563
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.6
Home QB Adjustment
-9.3
Away QB Adjustment
-7.7
Market Regression
-8.1
Final Difference
-117.2
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.7
Value
Ptile
11/07
3.2
73
11/13
-3.8
26
11/20
5.3
83
09/09
1.2
57
09/13
-17.7
0
09/23
-4.6
20
10/01
4.2
75
10/07
3.1
70
10/22
-5.1
18
10/28
-6.7
10
M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-9.3
Value
Ptile
11/27
-7.2
9
12/04
-2.9
32
12/11
-4.5
21
12/18
-3.4
28
12/24
-0.1
52
01/01
4.0
77
10/07
-2.7
32
10/11
-1.6
38
10/21
-0.6
46
10/28
2.3
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Titans Defense
Bears logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
15
32
Yards / Game
28
25
Passing Yards / Game
26
27
Rushing Yards / Game
10
23

EPA

EPA / Play
24
24
EPA / Pass
26
23
EPA / Rush
18
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
11
Interceptions / Game
18
5
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
22
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
22
4th Down Efficiency
25
9
RZ Efficiency
22
30
Titans Offense vs Bears Defense
Titans logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
23
2
Yards / Game
26
5
Passing Yards / Game
25
24
Rushing Yards / Game
21
7

EPA

EPA / Play
28
1
EPA / Pass
28
1
EPA / Rush
23
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
8
Interceptions / Game
18
1
Fumbles / Game
23
1
Turnover EPA / Game
8
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
5
4th Down Efficiency
27
26
RZ Efficiency
22
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
-24
L
L
O
12/25
-14
L
L
O
01/01
4
W
W
U
09/09
20
W
W
O
09/13
-13
L
L
U
09/23
17
W
W
U
10/01
16
W
W
O
10/07
38
W
W
O
10/22
6
W
L
U
10/28
1
W
L
O
TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
6
W
L
O
01/01
1
W
P
O
09/09
-21
L
L
U
09/16
-28
L
L
O
09/23
3
W
W
O
09/30
-24
L
L
O
10/07
-23
L
L
U
10/11
3
W
W
O
10/21
1
W
W
O
10/28
-6
L
L
U