CHIBears
5-3
17
TBD
Nissan Stadium
77°F
14 mph
24
TENTitans
5-2
TBD
Nissan Stadium
77°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
0
17
17
Titans
3
7
1
7
18
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
375
228
Total Plays
75
55
Yards / Play
5.0
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.13
Passing Yards
319
136
Comp/Att
36/52(69%)
10/21(48%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.05
Rushing Yards
56
92
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
11
Passing 1st downs
17
7
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
13%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-13.35
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-16
-22
Sack EPA
-3.48
-4.41
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
--
57
Penalty EPA
--
-7.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model67.4%
Spread Pick
Bears+6.5
Expected Value
+2.1%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+94
Home nfelo
1,543
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+25.4
Home QB Adjustment
+23.2
Away QB Adjustment
-2.2
Market Regression
+2.9
Final Difference
126.4
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+23.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
24
Yards / Game
28
28
Passing Yards / Game
14
4
Rushing Yards / Game
26
24
EPA
EPA / Play
22
28
EPA / Pass
24
27
EPA / Rush
20
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
26
Interceptions / Game
26
7
Fumbles / Game
9
21
Turnover EPA / Game
20
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
32
4th Down Efficiency
14
19
RZ Efficiency
21
30
Titans Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
13
Yards / Game
4
11
Passing Yards / Game
15
22
Rushing Yards / Game
2
14
EPA
EPA / Play
3
10
EPA / Pass
4
20
EPA / Rush
2
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
17
Interceptions / Game
3
28
Fumbles / Game
2
21
Turnover EPA / Game
31
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
11
4th Down Efficiency
6
18
RZ Efficiency
2
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Titans
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U