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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ vikings week 5, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CHI logo
CHIBears
2-2
22
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
29
MINVikings
3-1
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
7
9
3
22
Vikings
7
14
0
8
29

Spread

CHI logo
+8.5

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
271
431
Total Plays
48
75
Yards / Play
5.6
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.11
Passing Yards
193
314
Comp/Att
15/22(68%)
33/43(77%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.33
Rushing Yards
78
117
Rush Attempts
24
31
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
14
29
Passing 1st downs
9
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
80%
3rd Down Conversions
4
12
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.46
-5.88
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-7
Sack EPA
-2.59
-1.94
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
40
70
Penalty EPA
-5.56
-8.61

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+198
Home nfelo
1,526
Away nfelo
1,381
Home Field
+34.8
Base HFA
+38.7
Divisional Adj
-17.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.1
Home QB Adjustment
-5.6
Away QB Adjustment
-24.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-24.7
Value
Ptile
10/24
-9.3
5
10/31
2.9
74
11/08
0.6
57
11/21
-5.6
16
12/12
0.6
57
12/20
2.0
68
09/11
-4.6
21
09/18
-6.6
11
09/25
-11.5
1
10/02
-6.6
10
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.6
Value
Ptile
11/28
-0.4
50
12/05
3.6
79
12/09
-2.5
34
12/20
-9.1
6
12/26
2.1
68
01/09
1.7
65
09/11
5.3
86
09/19
-6.2
13
09/25
0.6
56
10/02
-0.6
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Bears logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
23
30
Yards / Game
28
31
Passing Yards / Game
32
26
Rushing Yards / Game
1
21

EPA

EPA / Play
21
26
EPA / Pass
32
27
EPA / Rush
2
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
11
Interceptions / Game
22
12
Fumbles / Game
20
24
Turnover EPA / Game
25
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
15
4th Down Efficiency
31
6
RZ Efficiency
13
22
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Vikings logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
8
32
Yards / Game
5
29
Passing Yards / Game
3
6
Rushing Yards / Game
29
31

EPA

EPA / Play
17
32
EPA / Pass
10
32
EPA / Rush
28
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
4
Interceptions / Game
21
13
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
10
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
32
4th Down Efficiency
22
4
RZ Efficiency
8
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
-11
L
L
O
12/12
-15
L
L
O
12/20
-8
L
L
U
12/26
1
W
W
O
01/02
26
W
W
U
01/09
-14
L
L
O
09/11
9
W
W
U
09/18
-17
L
L
U
09/25
3
W
P
O
10/02
-8
L
L
U
MIN logo

Vikings

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
-2
L
L
O
12/09
8
W
W
O
12/20
8
W
W
U
12/26
-7
L
L
O
01/02
-27
L
L
O
01/09
14
W
W
O
09/11
16
W
W
U
09/19
-17
L
L
U
09/25
4
W
L
P
10/02
3
W
L
O