CHIBears
2-2
22
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
029
MINVikings
3-1
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
7
9
3
22
Vikings
7
14
0
8
29
Spread
+8.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
271
431
Total Plays
48
75
Yards / Play
5.6
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.11
Passing Yards
193
314
Comp/Att
15/22(68%)
33/43(77%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.33
Rushing Yards
78
117
Rush Attempts
24
31
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
29
Passing 1st downs
9
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
80%
3rd Down Conversions
4
12
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.46
-5.88
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-7
Sack EPA
-2.59
-1.94
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
40
70
Penalty EPA
-5.56
-8.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+201
Home nfelo
1,526
Away nfelo
1,379
Home Field
+34.8
Base HFA
+38.7
Divisional Adj
-17.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.1
Home QB Adjustment
-5.6
Away QB Adjustment
-24.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-24.7
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
30
Yards / Game
28
31
Passing Yards / Game
32
26
Rushing Yards / Game
1
21
EPA
EPA / Play
21
26
EPA / Pass
32
27
EPA / Rush
2
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
11
Interceptions / Game
22
12
Fumbles / Game
20
24
Turnover EPA / Game
25
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
15
4th Down Efficiency
31
6
RZ Efficiency
13
22
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
32
Yards / Game
5
29
Passing Yards / Game
3
6
Rushing Yards / Game
29
31
EPA
EPA / Play
17
32
EPA / Pass
10
32
EPA / Rush
28
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
4
Interceptions / Game
21
13
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
10
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
32
4th Down Efficiency
22
4
RZ Efficiency
8
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Vikings
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U