CHIBears
4-6
10
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
036
MINVikings
9-1
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
3
0
10
Vikings
0
24
3
9
36
Spread
-10.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
169
537
Total Plays
38
84
Yards / Play
4.4
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.22
Passing Yards
126
378
Comp/Att
18/23(78%)
32/48(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.46
Rushing Yards
43
159
Rush Attempts
11
35
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
8
31
Passing 1st downs
7
21
Rushing 1st downs
--
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
25%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
2
12
3rd Down Attempts
8
18
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-13.23
-5.75
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-21
-14
Sack EPA
-4.70
-2.26
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
44
70
Penalty EPA
-4.11
-1.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+223
Home nfelo
1,611
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+38.3
Home QB Adjustment
+37.4
Away QB Adjustment
-1.0
Market Regression
-30.1
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+37.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
8
Yards / Game
23
4
Passing Yards / Game
11
24
Rushing Yards / Game
29
1
EPA
EPA / Play
24
3
EPA / Pass
23
12
EPA / Rush
21
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
19
Interceptions / Game
30
27
Fumbles / Game
4
5
Turnover EPA / Game
3
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
2
4th Down Efficiency
25
4
RZ Efficiency
25
11
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
21
Yards / Game
6
17
Passing Yards / Game
15
19
Rushing Yards / Game
11
24
EPA
EPA / Play
5
18
EPA / Pass
3
20
EPA / Rush
32
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
14
Interceptions / Game
1
22
Fumbles / Game
24
3
Turnover EPA / Game
25
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
27
4th Down Efficiency
8
11
RZ Efficiency
3
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U