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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ vikings week 12, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CHI logo
CHIBears
4-6
10
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0
36
MINVikings
9-1
MIN logo
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
3
0
10
Vikings
0
24
3
9
36

Spread

MIN logo
-10.5

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
169
537
Total Plays
38
84
Yards / Play
4.4
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.22
Passing Yards
126
378
Comp/Att
18/23(78%)
32/48(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.46
Rushing Yards
43
159
Rush Attempts
11
35
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
8
31
Passing 1st downs
7
21
Rushing 1st downs
--
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
25%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
2
12
3rd Down Attempts
8
18
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-13.23
-5.75
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-21
-14
Sack EPA
-4.70
-2.26
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
44
70
Penalty EPA
-4.11
-1.39

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+223
Home nfelo
1,611
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+38.3
Home QB Adjustment
+37.4
Away QB Adjustment
-1.0
Market Regression
-30.1
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Value
Ptile
09/13
-6.5
13
09/20
5.4
84
09/27
4.3
78
10/04
1.2
57
10/18
3.0
69
10/25
-2.2
37
11/01
-4.3
23
11/08
4.9
81
11/12
-7.3
9
11/22
-1.3
42
B. Favre headshot

B. Favre

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+37.4
Value
Ptile
09/13
-3.7
25
09/20
1.1
56
09/27
0.6
54
10/05
9.8
96
10/11
0.3
52
10/18
6.1
86
10/25
0.1
50
11/01
8.6
94
11/15
4.3
78
11/22
7.4
90

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Bears logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
19
8
Yards / Game
23
4
Passing Yards / Game
11
24
Rushing Yards / Game
29
1

EPA

EPA / Play
24
3
EPA / Pass
23
12
EPA / Rush
21
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
19
Interceptions / Game
30
27
Fumbles / Game
4
5
Turnover EPA / Game
3
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
2
4th Down Efficiency
25
4
RZ Efficiency
25
11
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Vikings logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
3
21
Yards / Game
6
17
Passing Yards / Game
15
19
Rushing Yards / Game
11
24

EPA

EPA / Play
5
18
EPA / Pass
3
20
EPA / Rush
32
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
14
Interceptions / Game
1
22
Fumbles / Game
24
3
Turnover EPA / Game
25
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
27
4th Down Efficiency
8
11
RZ Efficiency
3
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
-6
L
L
U
09/20
3
W
W
U
09/27
6
W
W
O
10/04
24
W
W
O
10/18
-7
L
L
U
10/25
-35
L
L
O
11/01
24
W
W
U
11/08
-20
L
L
O
11/12
-4
L
L
U
11/22
-4
L
L
U
MIN logo

Vikings

9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
14
W
W
O
09/20
14
W
W
U
09/27
3
W
L
O
10/05
7
W
W
O
10/11
28
W
W
O
10/18
2
W
L
O
10/25
-10
L
L
U
11/01
12
W
W
O
11/15
17
W
P
U
11/22
26
W
W
U