CHIBears
7-8
17
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
013
MINVikings
3-12
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
8
0
3
11
Vikings
10
3
0
0
13
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
209
301
Total Plays
57
71
Yards / Play
3.7
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.38
-0.40
Passing Yards
117
222
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
21/42(50%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.54
-0.34
Rushing Yards
92
79
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
3.7
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
16
Passing 1st downs
5
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
38%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-12.34
-12.03
Sacks
7
2
Sack Yards
-43
-6
Sack EPA
-9.95
-2.57
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
--
38
Penalty EPA
--
-3.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model47.1%
Spread Pick
Bears+2.5
Expected Value
+3.5%
Cover Probability
54.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-73
Home nfelo
1,421
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.5
Home QB Adjustment
-7.9
Away QB Adjustment
+7.5
Market Regression
+7.8
Final Difference
-19.9
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-7.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
31
Yards / Game
25
20
Passing Yards / Game
30
26
Rushing Yards / Game
9
10
EPA
EPA / Play
24
28
EPA / Pass
30
31
EPA / Rush
19
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
5
Interceptions / Game
25
31
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
8
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
29
4th Down Efficiency
30
26
RZ Efficiency
12
16
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
14
Yards / Game
18
17
Passing Yards / Game
17
22
Rushing Yards / Game
4
5
EPA
EPA / Play
20
4
EPA / Pass
29
9
EPA / Rush
2
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
5
Interceptions / Game
21
5
Fumbles / Game
24
18
Turnover EPA / Game
15
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
9
4th Down Efficiency
17
14
RZ Efficiency
8
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Vikings
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
8-2
O/U