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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ vikings week 17, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CHI logo
CHIBears
7-8
17
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0
13
MINVikings
3-12
MIN logo
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
8
0
3
11
Vikings
10
3
0
0
13

Spread

CHI logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
209
301
Total Plays
57
71
Yards / Play
3.7
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.38
-0.40
Passing Yards
117
222
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
21/42(50%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.54
-0.34
Rushing Yards
92
79
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
3.7
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
10
16
Passing 1st downs
5
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
38%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-12.34
-12.03
Sacks
7
2
Sack Yards
-43
-6
Sack EPA
-9.95
-2.57
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
--
38
Penalty EPA
--
-3.31

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
+1.0

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model47.3%
Spread Pick
CHI logo
Bears+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.5%
Cover Probability
54.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-71
Home nfelo
1,419
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.5
Home QB Adjustment
-7.9
Away QB Adjustment
+7.5
Market Regression
+8.5
Final Difference
-18.7
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
Value
Ptile
09/09
2.6
69
09/16
-9.0
3
09/23
-1.5
39
11/04
-6.1
11
11/11
-6.4
10
12/02
5.4
83
12/09
-3.9
25
12/16
0.2
51
12/23
-4.6
21
12/25
1.9
65
C. Ponder headshot

C. Ponder

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-7.9
Value
Ptile
10/23
-3.0
31
10/30
-1.6
38
11/14
-6.0
14
11/20
-2.7
33
11/27
-2.0
36
12/04
3.4
74
12/11
-8.1
5
12/18
-5.7
15
12/24
-3.4
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Bears logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
17
31
Yards / Game
25
20
Passing Yards / Game
30
26
Rushing Yards / Game
9
10

EPA

EPA / Play
24
28
EPA / Pass
30
31
EPA / Rush
19
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
5
Interceptions / Game
25
31
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
8
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
29
4th Down Efficiency
30
26
RZ Efficiency
12
16
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Vikings logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
18
14
Yards / Game
18
17
Passing Yards / Game
17
22
Rushing Yards / Game
4
5

EPA

EPA / Play
20
4
EPA / Pass
29
9
EPA / Rush
2
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
5
Interceptions / Game
21
5
Fumbles / Game
24
18
Turnover EPA / Game
15
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
9
4th Down Efficiency
17
14
RZ Efficiency
8
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
29
W
W
O
10/23
6
W
W
U
11/07
6
W
W
O
11/13
24
W
W
O
11/20
11
W
W
O
11/27
-5
L
L
O
12/04
-7
L
L
U
12/11
-3
L
W
U
12/18
-24
L
L
O
12/25
-14
L
L
O
MIN logo

Vikings

2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
-29
L
L
O
10/23
-6
L
W
O
10/30
3
W
W
U
11/14
-38
L
L
O
11/20
-6
L
L
O
11/27
-10
L
P
U
12/04
-3
L
L
O
12/11
-6
L
W
O
12/18
-22
L
L
O
12/24
7
W
W
O