CHIBears
7-8
21
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
019
MINVikings
10-5
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
6
3
7
3
19
Vikings
0
6
0
13
19
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
337
300
Total Plays
75
47
Yards / Play
4.5
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.10
Passing Yards
179
--
Comp/Att
26/37(70%)
12/21(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.19
Rushing Yards
158
174
Rush Attempts
34
26
Yards / Rush
4.6
6.7
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
14
Passing 1st downs
13
6
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
44%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
20%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.10
-11.19
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-28
--
Sack EPA
-8.06
--
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
34
40
Penalty EPA
-1.04
-5.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model56.4%
Spread Pick
Vikings+4.5
Expected Value
+17.9%
Cover Probability
61.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+36
Home nfelo
1,570
Away nfelo
1,464
Home Field
+41.0
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-112.1
Home QB Adjustment
-115.0
Away QB Adjustment
-2.9
Market Regression
-59.8
Final Difference
-44.5
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.9
S. Mannion
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-115.0
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
6
Yards / Game
29
13
Passing Yards / Game
18
24
Rushing Yards / Game
27
17
EPA
EPA / Play
28
5
EPA / Pass
24
6
EPA / Rush
29
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
23
Interceptions / Game
16
3
Fumbles / Game
4
3
Turnover EPA / Game
22
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
19
4th Down Efficiency
29
22
RZ Efficiency
24
2
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
4
Yards / Game
19
8
Passing Yards / Game
32
11
Rushing Yards / Game
8
9
EPA
EPA / Play
10
6
EPA / Pass
9
11
EPA / Rush
12
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
12
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
21
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
6
4th Down Efficiency
16
23
RZ Efficiency
10
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
4-6
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Vikings
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U