CHIBears
6-10
17
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
031
MINVikings
7-9
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
11
3
0
17
Vikings
0
3
7
15
25
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
358
331
Total Plays
81
47
Yards / Play
4.4
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.08
Passing Yards
268
227
Comp/Att
33/49(67%)
14/22(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
10.3
EPA / Pass
-0.43
+0.37
Rushing Yards
90
104
Rush Attempts
25
22
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
11
Passing 1st downs
17
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
33%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-12.62
--
Sacks
7
3
Sack Yards
-59
-23
Sack EPA
-19.88
-7.32
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
--
47
Penalty EPA
--
-4.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+120
Home nfelo
1,513
Away nfelo
1,425
Home Field
+32.5
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.6
Home QB Adjustment
-3.3
Away QB Adjustment
-2.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
24
Yards / Game
24
30
Passing Yards / Game
21
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
26
EPA
EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
30
6
EPA / Rush
18
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
29
Interceptions / Game
29
12
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
4
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
4
4th Down Efficiency
28
11
RZ Efficiency
30
15
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
10
5
Passing Yards / Game
15
6
Rushing Yards / Game
17
22
EPA
EPA / Play
18
16
EPA / Pass
12
20
EPA / Rush
26
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
2
Interceptions / Game
2
29
Fumbles / Game
7
11
Turnover EPA / Game
30
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
11
4th Down Efficiency
15
11
RZ Efficiency
10
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U