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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ bears week 1, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
-
21
TBD
Soldier Field
73°F
11 mph
24
CHIBears
-
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
73°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
7
7
0
21
Bears
7
3
7
7
24

Spread

CIN logo
CHI logo
3
P

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
340
323
Total Plays
55
61
Yards / Play
6.2
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.07
Passing Yards
277
--
Comp/Att
26/33(79%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.24
Rushing Yards
63
81
Rush Attempts
21
28
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
64%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.39
-5.14
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-1.26
--
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
84
59
Penalty EPA
-6.16
-7.66

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,544
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+8.2
Home QB Adjustment
-1.9
Away QB Adjustment
-10.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.1
Value
Ptile
11/04
-1.7
38
11/11
6.9
90
11/18
4.5
79
11/25
-0.1
49
12/02
-0.6
46
12/09
-6.2
12
12/13
-7.4
8
12/23
-7.6
7
12/30
-2.9
31
01/05
-6.6
11
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
Value
Ptile
10/22
-5.1
18
10/28
-6.7
10
11/04
3.0
70
11/11
-5.0
19
11/25
-0.7
45
12/02
6.8
89
12/09
-5.2
17
12/16
-6.0
13
12/23
-0.8
43
12/30
1.1
57

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Bears Defense
Bengals logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
8
30
Yards / Game
9
29
Passing Yards / Game
22
13
Rushing Yards / Game
18
32

EPA

EPA / Play
14
31
EPA / Pass
14
16
EPA / Rush
20
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
30
Interceptions / Game
26
7
Fumbles / Game
24
20
Turnover EPA / Game
5
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
25
4th Down Efficiency
13
30
RZ Efficiency
1
20
Bears Offense vs Bengals Defense
Bears logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
4
5
Yards / Game
7
4
Passing Yards / Game
7
1
Rushing Yards / Game
15
8

EPA

EPA / Play
7
3
EPA / Pass
6
3
EPA / Rush
8
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
29
Interceptions / Game
12
8
Fumbles / Game
17
15
Turnover EPA / Game
11
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
2
4th Down Efficiency
8
5
RZ Efficiency
7
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
-8
L
L
O
11/11
18
W
W
U
11/18
22
W
W
U
11/25
24
W
W
U
12/02
7
W
W
U
12/09
-1
L
L
U
12/13
21
W
W
O
12/23
3
W
W
U
12/30
6
W
W
U
01/05
-6
L
L
U
CHI logo

Bears

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
1
W
L
O
11/04
31
W
W
O
11/11
-7
L
L
U
11/19
-25
L
L
O
11/25
18
W
W
U
12/02
-6
L
L
O
12/09
-7
L
L
U
12/16
-8
L
L
U
12/23
15
W
W
O
12/30
2
W
L
O