CINBengals
-
21
TBD
Soldier Field
73°F
11 mph
24
CHIBears
-
TBD
Soldier Field
73°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
7
7
0
21
Bears
7
3
7
7
24
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
340
323
Total Plays
55
61
Yards / Play
6.2
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.07
Passing Yards
277
--
Comp/Att
26/33(79%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.24
Rushing Yards
63
81
Rush Attempts
21
28
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
64%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.39
-5.14
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-1.26
--
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
84
59
Penalty EPA
-6.16
-7.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,523
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+8.2
Home QB Adjustment
-1.9
Away QB Adjustment
-10.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-10.1
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
30
Yards / Game
9
29
Passing Yards / Game
22
13
Rushing Yards / Game
18
32
EPA
EPA / Play
14
31
EPA / Pass
14
16
EPA / Rush
20
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
30
Interceptions / Game
26
7
Fumbles / Game
24
20
Turnover EPA / Game
5
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
25
4th Down Efficiency
13
30
RZ Efficiency
1
20
Bears Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
5
Yards / Game
7
4
Passing Yards / Game
7
1
Rushing Yards / Game
15
8
EPA
EPA / Play
7
3
EPA / Pass
6
3
EPA / Rush
8
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
29
Interceptions / Game
12
8
Fumbles / Game
17
15
Turnover EPA / Game
11
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
2
4th Down Efficiency
8
5
RZ Efficiency
7
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Bears
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U