CINBengals
3-2
27
TBD
New Era Field
65°F
11 mph
24
BUFBills
2-3
TBD
New Era Field
65°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bengals
10
7
7
0
3
27
Bills
7
3
0
14
0
24
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
483
322
Total Plays
84
69
Yards / Play
5.8
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.09
Passing Yards
318
192
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
19/32(59%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.40
+0.09
Rushing Yards
165
130
Rush Attempts
41
32
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
20
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
39%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
18
17
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.26
-3.49
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-19
-24
Sack EPA
-3.66
-7.76
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
78
27
Penalty EPA
-8.06
-3.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-155
Home nfelo
1,426
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-89.3
Home QB Adjustment
-91.4
Away QB Adjustment
-2.1
Market Regression
+49.2
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
T. Lewis
Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-91.4
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
20
Yards / Game
9
10
Passing Yards / Game
22
7
Rushing Yards / Game
18
27
EPA
EPA / Play
14
8
EPA / Pass
14
2
EPA / Rush
20
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
4
Interceptions / Game
26
2
Fumbles / Game
24
24
Turnover EPA / Game
5
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
14
4th Down Efficiency
13
11
RZ Efficiency
1
6
Bills Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
19
4
Passing Yards / Game
29
1
Rushing Yards / Game
2
8
EPA
EPA / Play
26
3
EPA / Pass
31
3
EPA / Rush
9
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
29
Interceptions / Game
15
8
Fumbles / Game
22
15
Turnover EPA / Game
12
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
2
4th Down Efficiency
30
5
RZ Efficiency
29
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U