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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ bills week 6, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
3-2
27
TBD
New Era Field
65°F
11 mph
24
BUFBills
2-3
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
65°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bengals
10
7
7
0
3
27
Bills
7
3
0
14
0
24

Spread

BUF logo
+6

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
483
322
Total Plays
84
69
Yards / Play
5.8
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.09
Passing Yards
318
192
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
19/32(59%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.40
+0.09
Rushing Yards
165
130
Rush Attempts
41
32
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
26
20
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
39%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
18
17
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.26
-3.49
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-19
-24
Sack EPA
-3.66
-7.76
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
78
27
Penalty EPA
-8.06
-3.71

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-157
Home nfelo
1,424
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-89.3
Home QB Adjustment
-91.4
Away QB Adjustment
-2.1
Market Regression
+50.2
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
Value
Ptile
12/09
-6.2
12
12/13
-7.4
8
12/23
-7.6
7
12/30
-2.9
31
01/05
-6.6
11
09/08
3.5
74
09/16
3.7
75
09/22
-2.0
39
09/29
-4.7
20
10/06
-2.9
33
T. Lewis headshot

T. Lewis

Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-91.4
Value
Ptile
12/30
-1.0
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Bills Defense
Bengals logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
8
20
Yards / Game
9
10
Passing Yards / Game
22
7
Rushing Yards / Game
18
27

EPA

EPA / Play
14
8
EPA / Pass
14
2
EPA / Rush
20
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
4
Interceptions / Game
26
2
Fumbles / Game
24
24
Turnover EPA / Game
5
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
14
4th Down Efficiency
13
11
RZ Efficiency
1
6
Bills Offense vs Bengals Defense
Bills logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
19
4
Passing Yards / Game
29
1
Rushing Yards / Game
2
8

EPA

EPA / Play
26
3
EPA / Pass
31
3
EPA / Rush
9
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
29
Interceptions / Game
15
8
Fumbles / Game
22
15
Turnover EPA / Game
12
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
2
4th Down Efficiency
30
5
RZ Efficiency
29
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
-1
L
L
U
12/13
21
W
W
O
12/23
3
W
W
U
12/30
6
W
W
U
01/05
-6
L
L
U
09/08
-3
L
P
O
09/16
10
W
W
U
09/22
4
W
W
O
09/29
-11
L
L
U
10/06
7
W
W
U
BUF logo

Bills

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/02
16
W
W
O
12/09
-3
L
L
U
12/16
-33
L
L
O
12/23
-14
L
L
U
12/30
19
W
W
U
09/08
-2
L
W
U
09/15
1
W
W
O
09/22
-7
L
L
O
09/29
3
W
W
U
10/03
-13
L
L
O