nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ broncos week 11, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

CIN logo
CINBengals
3-6
20
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
60°F
7 mph
17
DENBroncos
3-6
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
60°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
6
7
0
7
20
Broncos
7
0
3
7
17

Spread

CIN logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
190
341
Total Plays
53
79
Yards / Play
3.6
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.18
Passing Yards
141
229
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
23/42(55%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.18
Rushing Yards
49
112
Rush Attempts
26
34
Yards / Rush
1.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.42
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
12
20
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
47%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
7
12
3rd Down Attempts
15
21
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-15.64
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-13
-25
Sack EPA
-4.07
-3.84
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
14
50
Penalty EPA
-0.56
-4.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,451
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
+96.8
Base HFA
+56.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
+20.3
Net QB Adjustment
-2.9
Home QB Adjustment
-11.0
Away QB Adjustment
-8.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
Value
Ptile
01/01
0.3
51
09/10
-15.7
0
09/14
-2.9
34
09/24
0.7
57
10/01
8.6
95
10/08
-0.3
50
10/22
-6.5
13
10/29
-0.5
48
11/05
-3.4
28
11/12
2.1
68
B. Osweiler headshot

B. Osweiler

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-11.0
Value
Ptile
11/13
-2.0
34
11/21
-0.1
47
11/27
-3.3
24
12/04
1.1
57
12/11
-7.3
7
12/18
-9.3
3
01/07
1.6
60
01/14
-7.0
8
11/05
-7.9
8
11/12
-2.5
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Broncos Defense
Bengals logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
25
22
Yards / Game
32
1
Passing Yards / Game
18
10
Rushing Yards / Game
31
5

EPA

EPA / Play
26
9
EPA / Pass
21
16
EPA / Rush
28
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
3
Interceptions / Game
13
25
Fumbles / Game
21
14
Turnover EPA / Game
12
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
2
4th Down Efficiency
21
7
RZ Efficiency
11
25
Broncos Offense vs Bengals Defense
Broncos logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
26
17
Yards / Game
18
18
Passing Yards / Game
19
8
Rushing Yards / Game
12
30

EPA

EPA / Play
29
14
EPA / Pass
31
10
EPA / Rush
16
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
13
Interceptions / Game
31
18
Fumbles / Game
23
28
Turnover EPA / Game
2
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
24
4th Down Efficiency
26
16
RZ Efficiency
32
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
17
W
W
U
09/10
-20
L
L
U
09/14
-4
L
L
U
09/24
-3
L
W
O
10/01
24
W
W
U
10/08
4
W
W
U
10/22
-15
L
L
O
10/29
1
W
L
O
11/05
-16
L
L
U
11/12
-4
L
W
O
DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
18
W
W
U
09/11
3
W
P
O
09/17
25
W
W
O
09/24
-10
L
L
O
10/01
6
W
W
U
10/15
-13
L
L
U
10/22
-21
L
L
U
10/30
-10
L
L
O
11/05
-28
L
L
O
11/12
-25
L
L
O