CINBengals
3-6
20
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
60°F
7 mph
17
DENBroncos
3-6
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
60°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
6
7
0
7
20
Broncos
7
0
3
7
17
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
190
341
Total Plays
53
79
Yards / Play
3.6
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.18
Passing Yards
141
229
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
23/42(55%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.18
Rushing Yards
49
112
Rush Attempts
26
34
Yards / Rush
1.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.42
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
20
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
47%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
7
12
3rd Down Attempts
15
21
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-15.64
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-13
-25
Sack EPA
-4.07
-3.84
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
14
50
Penalty EPA
-0.56
-4.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+76
Home nfelo
1,456
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.5
Time Adj
+20.1
Net QB Adjustment
-2.9
Home QB Adjustment
-11.0
Away QB Adjustment
-8.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-11.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
22
Yards / Game
32
1
Passing Yards / Game
18
10
Rushing Yards / Game
31
5
EPA
EPA / Play
26
9
EPA / Pass
21
16
EPA / Rush
28
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
3
Interceptions / Game
13
25
Fumbles / Game
21
14
Turnover EPA / Game
12
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
2
4th Down Efficiency
21
7
RZ Efficiency
11
25
Broncos Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
17
Yards / Game
18
18
Passing Yards / Game
19
8
Rushing Yards / Game
12
30
EPA
EPA / Play
29
14
EPA / Pass
31
10
EPA / Rush
16
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
13
Interceptions / Game
31
18
Fumbles / Game
23
28
Turnover EPA / Game
2
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
24
4th Down Efficiency
26
16
RZ Efficiency
32
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U