CINBengals
-
17
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
63°F
10 mph
16
CLEBrowns
-
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
63°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
7
3
0
17
Browns
0
10
6
0
16
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
141
327
Total Plays
49
71
Yards / Play
2.9
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.11
Passing Yards
95
278
Comp/Att
14/23(61%)
31/45(69%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.04
Rushing Yards
46
49
Rush Attempts
23
24
Yards / Rush
2.0
2.0
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
22
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
50%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
7
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.48
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-12
Sack EPA
-3.18
-2.35
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
33
53
Penalty EPA
-5.97
-5.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-122
Home nfelo
1,389
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+34.7
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
-17.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.2
Home QB Adjustment
+4.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.9
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
24
Yards / Game
32
1
Passing Yards / Game
24
4
Rushing Yards / Game
32
1
EPA
EPA / Play
30
11
EPA / Pass
31
21
EPA / Rush
29
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
13
Interceptions / Game
28
17
Fumbles / Game
25
25
Turnover EPA / Game
1
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
28
4th Down Efficiency
1
10
RZ Efficiency
8
28
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
27
Yards / Game
27
30
Passing Yards / Game
12
16
Rushing Yards / Game
30
26
EPA
EPA / Play
32
24
EPA / Pass
30
24
EPA / Rush
10
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
4
Interceptions / Game
31
4
Fumbles / Game
18
25
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
30
4th Down Efficiency
20
10
RZ Efficiency
8
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Browns
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U