CINBengals
0-3
31
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
63°F
6 mph
7
CLEBrowns
0-3
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
63°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
21
10
0
31
Browns
0
0
0
7
7
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
350
215
Total Plays
63
61
Yards / Play
5.6
3.5
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.30
Passing Yards
264
170
Comp/Att
25/30(83%)
21/42(50%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
4.0
EPA / Pass
+0.42
-0.32
Rushing Yards
86
45
Rush Attempts
30
17
Yards / Rush
2.9
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
15
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
55%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.47
-3.64
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-22
-13
Sack EPA
-8.43
-2.81
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
66
28
Penalty EPA
-6.79
-4.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-60
Home nfelo
1,382
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+51.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.1
Home QB Adjustment
-12.7
Away QB Adjustment
-16.8
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-16.8
D. Kizer
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-12.7
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
31
Yards / Game
32
13
Passing Yards / Game
18
31
Rushing Yards / Game
31
7
EPA
EPA / Play
26
27
EPA / Pass
21
27
EPA / Rush
28
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
6
Interceptions / Game
13
31
Fumbles / Game
21
18
Turnover EPA / Game
12
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
23
4th Down Efficiency
21
18
RZ Efficiency
11
32
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
17
Yards / Game
24
18
Passing Yards / Game
15
8
Rushing Yards / Game
18
30
EPA
EPA / Play
31
14
EPA / Pass
32
10
EPA / Rush
4
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
13
Interceptions / Game
32
18
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
1
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
24
4th Down Efficiency
12
16
RZ Efficiency
24
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Browns
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U