CINBengals
3-2
24
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
70°F
19 mph
34
CLEBrowns
0-5
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
70°F
19 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
7
0
10
24
Browns
0
7
6
15
28
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
438
328
Total Plays
68
65
Yards / Play
6.4
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.05
Passing Yards
362
218
Comp/Att
31/46(67%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
7.5
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.07
Rushing Yards
76
110
Rush Attempts
20
34
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
17
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
36%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-17.56
-5.49
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-19
-13
Sack EPA
-7.60
-3.61
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
50
35
Penalty EPA
-6.27
-5.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-37
Home nfelo
1,389
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.0
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+8.4
Market Regression
-9.1
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
B. Weeden
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
19
Yards / Game
23
22
Passing Yards / Game
22
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
18
EPA
EPA / Play
17
12
EPA / Pass
23
18
EPA / Rush
8
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
15
Interceptions / Game
18
11
Fumbles / Game
18
5
Turnover EPA / Game
19
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
14
4th Down Efficiency
3
27
RZ Efficiency
18
23
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
8
Yards / Game
25
8
Passing Yards / Game
24
8
Rushing Yards / Game
24
14
EPA
EPA / Play
26
4
EPA / Pass
27
3
EPA / Rush
13
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
7
Interceptions / Game
27
17
Fumbles / Game
3
4
Turnover EPA / Game
17
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
10
4th Down Efficiency
21
7
RZ Efficiency
30
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-5
SU
3-5-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Browns
0-10
SU
6-3-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U