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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ browns week 7, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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CIN logo
CINBengals
2-4
21
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
62°F
8 mph
14
CLEBrowns
1-5
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
62°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
0
14
0
21
Browns
0
6
0
8
14

Spread

CIN logo
-5.5

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
223
338
Total Plays
53
78
Yards / Play
4.2
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.24
Passing Yards
164
261
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
31/53(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.23
Rushing Yards
59
77
Rush Attempts
25
21
Yards / Rush
2.4
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.39
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
12
18
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
15%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
19
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.43
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-17
-18
Sack EPA
-5.79
-5.64
Penalties
3
10
Penalty Yards
37
80
Penalty EPA
-4.44
-9.06

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model67.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-98
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,576
Home Field
+40.5
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
-20.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-42.9
Home QB Adjustment
-26.1
Away QB Adjustment
+16.8
Market Regression
-7.6
Final Difference
-127.4
Model Spread
+5.0

Quarterbacks

J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
Value
Ptile
10/29
10.2
98
11/05
7.7
92
11/12
-0.0
49
11/16
-2.0
34
09/08
-2.3
32
09/15
0.9
54
09/23
6.2
85
09/29
3.1
70
10/06
10.7
98
10/13
1.8
61
D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-26.1
Value
Ptile
09/24
5.1
82
10/22
-9.7
4
11/05
2.4
67
11/12
-2.3
33
09/08
-8.0
5
09/15
-0.3
47
09/22
-5.8
12
09/29
-2.0
34
10/06
-10.7
1
10/13
-5.9
12

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Bengals logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
7
27
Yards / Game
9
18
Passing Yards / Game
1
10
Rushing Yards / Game
30
21

EPA

EPA / Play
6
9
EPA / Pass
5
21
EPA / Rush
14
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
2
Interceptions / Game
9
32
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
6
4th Down Efficiency
21
3
RZ Efficiency
5
25
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Browns logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
32
25
Yards / Game
28
24
Passing Yards / Game
12
13
Rushing Yards / Game
29
19

EPA

EPA / Play
32
28
EPA / Pass
32
17
EPA / Rush
22
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
10
Interceptions / Game
32
9
Fumbles / Game
17
8
Turnover EPA / Game
1
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
23
4th Down Efficiency
18
19
RZ Efficiency
27
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
3
W
P
O
12/23
-23
L
L
O
12/31
-8
L
L
U
01/07
17
W
W
O
09/08
-6
L
L
U
09/15
-1
L
W
O
09/23
-5
L
L
O
09/29
10
W
W
O
10/06
-3
L
L
O
10/13
10
W
W
U
CLE logo

Browns

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
14
W
W
O
12/28
17
W
W
O
01/07
-17
L
L
O
01/13
-31
L
L
O
09/08
-16
L
L
O
09/15
5
W
W
U
09/22
-6
L
L
U
09/29
-4
L
L
U
10/06
-21
L
L
O
10/13
-4
L
W
U