CINBengals
2-4
21
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
62°F
8 mph
14
CLEBrowns
1-5
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
62°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
0
14
0
21
Browns
0
6
0
8
14
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
223
338
Total Plays
53
78
Yards / Play
4.2
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.24
Passing Yards
164
261
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
31/53(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.23
Rushing Yards
59
77
Rush Attempts
25
21
Yards / Rush
2.4
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.39
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
18
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
15%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
19
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.43
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-17
-18
Sack EPA
-5.79
-5.64
Penalties
3
10
Penalty Yards
37
80
Penalty EPA
-4.44
-9.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-96
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,574
Home Field
+40.5
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
-20.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-42.9
Home QB Adjustment
-26.1
Away QB Adjustment
+16.8
Market Regression
-7.0
Final Difference
-126.9
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-26.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
27
Yards / Game
9
18
Passing Yards / Game
1
10
Rushing Yards / Game
30
21
EPA
EPA / Play
6
9
EPA / Pass
5
21
EPA / Rush
14
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
2
Interceptions / Game
9
32
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
6
4th Down Efficiency
21
3
RZ Efficiency
5
25
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
25
Yards / Game
28
24
Passing Yards / Game
12
13
Rushing Yards / Game
29
19
EPA
EPA / Play
32
28
EPA / Pass
32
17
EPA / Rush
22
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
10
Interceptions / Game
32
9
Fumbles / Game
17
8
Turnover EPA / Game
1
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
23
4th Down Efficiency
18
19
RZ Efficiency
27
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Browns
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U