CINBengals
9-2
37
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
45°F
12 mph
3
CLEBrowns
2-9
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
45°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
13
14
3
37
Browns
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
273
Total Plays
56
60
Yards / Play
6.7
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.32
-0.38
Passing Yards
233
205
Comp/Att
16/22(73%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
10.6
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.55
-0.33
Rushing Yards
144
68
Rush Attempts
33
19
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
42%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
40%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.52
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-25
Sack EPA
-1.35
-6.60
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
55
84
Penalty EPA
-6.76
-10.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model81.5%
Spread Pick
Bengals-7.5
Expected Value
+23.8%
Cover Probability
64.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-319
Home nfelo
1,346
Away nfelo
1,635
Home Field
+54.5
Base HFA
+60.6
Divisional Adj
-27.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-84.5
Home QB Adjustment
-67.0
Away QB Adjustment
+17.5
Market Regression
+24.7
Final Difference
-257.7
Model Spread
+10.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+17.5
A. Davis
Proj. Value
-5.4
Team Elo Adj
-67.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
29
Yards / Game
16
28
Passing Yards / Game
30
2
Rushing Yards / Game
13
30
EPA
EPA / Play
6
29
EPA / Pass
2
30
EPA / Rush
23
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
2
Interceptions / Game
6
20
Fumbles / Game
25
9
Turnover EPA / Game
25
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
21
4th Down Efficiency
4
27
RZ Efficiency
5
20
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
2
Yards / Game
26
13
Passing Yards / Game
12
24
Rushing Yards / Game
22
7
EPA
EPA / Play
29
7
EPA / Pass
28
5
EPA / Rush
18
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
23
Interceptions / Game
11
3
Fumbles / Game
31
27
Turnover EPA / Game
6
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
14
4th Down Efficiency
26
16
RZ Efficiency
32
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
8-2
SU
8-1-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Browns
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U