CINBengals
6-8
18
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
37°F
9 mph
26
CLEBrowns
6-7
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
37°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
0
0
18
18
Browns
0
16
7
3
26
Spread
+9.5
Total
PUSH
44
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
211
493
Total Plays
47
66
Yards / Play
4.5
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.18
Passing Yards
109
--
Comp/Att
13/20(65%)
28/38(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.49
Rushing Yards
102
146
Rush Attempts
24
28
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
7
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
13%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-26
--
Sack EPA
-5.45
--
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
15
57
Penalty EPA
-0.95
-5.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+180
Home nfelo
1,451
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+51.7
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
-26.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+116.0
Home QB Adjustment
+25.3
Away QB Adjustment
-90.8
Market Regression
+39.6
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
J. Driskel
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-90.8
Value
Ptile
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+25.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
21
Yards / Game
26
30
Passing Yards / Game
22
31
Rushing Yards / Game
21
28
EPA
EPA / Play
18
16
EPA / Pass
18
9
EPA / Rush
19
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
1
1
Turnover EPA / Game
24
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
6
4th Down Efficiency
18
27
RZ Efficiency
3
19
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
30
Yards / Game
11
32
Passing Yards / Game
30
10
Rushing Yards / Game
13
29
EPA
EPA / Play
24
29
EPA / Pass
23
29
EPA / Rush
14
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
19
Interceptions / Game
26
20
Fumbles / Game
9
19
Turnover EPA / Game
14
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
32
4th Down Efficiency
29
26
RZ Efficiency
5
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Browns
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U