CINBengals
9-4
34
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
66°F
6 mph
23
TBBuccaneers
6-7
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
66°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
3
17
14
34
Buccaneers
3
14
0
6
23
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
239
396
Total Plays
64
71
Yards / Play
3.7
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.20
Passing Yards
186
304
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
30/45(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.10
Rushing Yards
53
92
Rush Attempts
21
25
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.48
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
25
Passing 1st downs
14
18
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
38%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
80%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.05
-18.08
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-16
-8
Sack EPA
-3.51
-4.84
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
27
58
Penalty EPA
-2.52
-7.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-95
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,618
Home Field
+55.0
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-26.7
Home QB Adjustment
-5.2
Away QB Adjustment
+21.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+21.5
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
15
Yards / Game
11
10
Passing Yards / Game
1
21
Rushing Yards / Game
28
15
EPA
EPA / Play
5
18
EPA / Pass
4
19
EPA / Rush
18
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
32
Interceptions / Game
13
27
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
23
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
8
4th Down Efficiency
32
25
RZ Efficiency
7
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
5
Yards / Game
14
17
Passing Yards / Game
11
29
Rushing Yards / Game
32
5
EPA
EPA / Play
23
7
EPA / Pass
11
10
EPA / Rush
32
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
7
Interceptions / Game
8
15
Fumbles / Game
24
3
Turnover EPA / Game
16
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
19
4th Down Efficiency
12
12
RZ Efficiency
24
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
1-8-1
ATS
3-7
O/U