CINBengals
5-7
21
TBD
StubHub Center
70°F
026
LACChargers
9-3
TBD
StubHub Center
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
9
0
9
21
Chargers
7
10
3
6
26
Spread
+16.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
295
288
Total Plays
64
56
Yards / Play
4.6
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.12
Passing Yards
151
203
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.12
Rushing Yards
144
85
Rush Attempts
32
25
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
38%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-19
-17
Sack EPA
-2.14
-2.77
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
34
38
Penalty EPA
-7.33
-4.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-16.5
Model
-16.5
Win Probability
Market90.4%
Model90.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+412
Home nfelo
1,619
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+87.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+117.1
Home QB Adjustment
+14.2
Away QB Adjustment
-102.9
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
389.6
Model Spread
-16.5
Quarterbacks
J. Driskel
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-102.9
Value
Ptile
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
11
Yards / Game
26
10
Passing Yards / Game
22
8
Rushing Yards / Game
21
10
EPA
EPA / Play
18
9
EPA / Pass
18
8
EPA / Rush
19
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
25
Interceptions / Game
17
18
Fumbles / Game
1
7
Turnover EPA / Game
24
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
19
4th Down Efficiency
18
23
RZ Efficiency
3
9
Chargers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
30
Yards / Game
13
32
Passing Yards / Game
5
10
Rushing Yards / Game
18
29
EPA
EPA / Play
7
29
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
9
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
19
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
7
19
Turnover EPA / Game
26
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
32
4th Down Efficiency
1
26
RZ Efficiency
9
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chargers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U