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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ chargers week 14, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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CIN logo
CINBengals
5-7
21
TBD
StubHub Center
70°F
0
26
LACChargers
9-3
LAC logo
TBD
StubHub Center
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
9
0
9
21
Chargers
7
10
3
6
26

Spread

CIN logo
+16.5

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
295
288
Total Plays
64
56
Yards / Play
4.6
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.12
Passing Yards
151
203
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.12
Rushing Yards
144
85
Rush Attempts
32
25
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
38%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-19
-17
Sack EPA
-2.14
-2.77
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
34
38
Penalty EPA
-7.33
-4.17

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-16.5
Model
-16.5

Win Probability

Market90.4%
Model90.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+411
Home nfelo
1,618
Away nfelo
1,413
Home Field
+88.5
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+117.1
Home QB Adjustment
+14.2
Away QB Adjustment
-102.9
Market Regression
+14.8
Final Difference
389.6
Model Spread
-16.5

Quarterbacks

J. Driskel headshot

J. Driskel

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-102.9
Value
Ptile
12/02
-3.4
25
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Value
Ptile
09/23
2.5
67
09/30
1.2
55
10/07
6.4
87
10/14
-1.2
38
10/21
4.1
75
11/04
0.1
47
11/11
-0.4
43
11/18
1.5
57
11/25
6.6
88
12/02
5.3
82

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Chargers Defense
Bengals logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
11
Yards / Game
26
10
Passing Yards / Game
22
8
Rushing Yards / Game
21
10

EPA

EPA / Play
18
9
EPA / Pass
18
8
EPA / Rush
19
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
25
Interceptions / Game
17
18
Fumbles / Game
1
7
Turnover EPA / Game
24
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
19
4th Down Efficiency
18
23
RZ Efficiency
3
9
Chargers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Chargers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
6
30
Yards / Game
13
32
Passing Yards / Game
5
10
Rushing Yards / Game
18
29

EPA

EPA / Play
7
29
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
9
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
19
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
7
19
Turnover EPA / Game
26
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
32
4th Down Efficiency
1
26
RZ Efficiency
9
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
-10
L
L
O
09/30
1
W
W
O
10/07
10
W
W
U
10/14
-7
L
L
U
10/21
-35
L
L
U
10/28
3
W
L
O
11/11
-37
L
L
O
11/18
-3
L
W
O
11/25
-15
L
L
O
12/02
-14
L
L
U
LAC logo

Chargers

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
-12
L
L
O
09/30
2
W
L
O
10/07
16
W
W
U
10/14
24
W
W
O
10/21
1
W
L
U
11/04
8
W
W
U
11/11
14
W
W
U
11/18
-1
L
L
U
11/25
35
W
W
O
12/02
3
W
W
O