CINBengals
4-2
10
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
59°F
10 mph
45
KCChiefs
5-1
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
59°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
7
3
0
10
Chiefs
7
17
8
7
39
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
56
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
239
551
Total Plays
54
70
Yards / Play
4.4
7.9
EPA / Play
-0.26
+0.33
Passing Yards
174
353
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.53
Rushing Yards
65
198
Rush Attempts
19
29
Yards / Rush
3.4
6.8
EPA / Rush
-0.40
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
33
Passing 1st downs
9
19
Rushing 1st downs
4
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
36%
75%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
50%
71%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.87
-3.35
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-5
Sack EPA
-3.97
-0.62
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
58
49
Penalty EPA
-6.69
-7.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+164
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,519
Home Field
+87.9
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+11.7
Home QB Adjustment
+19.5
Away QB Adjustment
+7.8
Market Regression
+14.1
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+19.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
24
Yards / Game
26
31
Passing Yards / Game
22
30
Rushing Yards / Game
21
27
EPA
EPA / Play
18
25
EPA / Pass
18
16
EPA / Rush
19
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
28
Interceptions / Game
17
9
Fumbles / Game
1
7
Turnover EPA / Game
24
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
26
4th Down Efficiency
18
28
RZ Efficiency
3
29
Chiefs Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
30
Yards / Game
1
32
Passing Yards / Game
7
10
Rushing Yards / Game
15
29
EPA
EPA / Play
1
29
EPA / Pass
1
29
EPA / Rush
1
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
19
Interceptions / Game
10
20
Fumbles / Game
12
19
Turnover EPA / Game
29
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
32
4th Down Efficiency
4
26
RZ Efficiency
1
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
5-5
O/U