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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ chiefs week 11, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
4-5
28
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
59°F
15 mph
6
KCChiefs
1-8
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
59°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
14
0
7
28
Chiefs
3
3
0
0
6

Spread

CIN logo
-3

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
409
284
Total Plays
69
60
Yards / Play
5.9
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.22
-0.16
Passing Yards
220
171
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
17/30(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.36
-0.32
Rushing Yards
189
113
Rush Attempts
38
26
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
29%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
4
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
4
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.74
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-10
-17
Sack EPA
-3.35
-3.58
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
54
30
Penalty EPA
-8.10
-5.50

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
KC logo
Chiefs+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+16
Home nfelo
1,404
Away nfelo
1,447
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-14.8
Home QB Adjustment
-2.2
Away QB Adjustment
+12.6
Market Regression
+9.8
Final Difference
-22.2
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
Value
Ptile
01/07
-5.4
16
09/10
-4.0
25
09/16
2.4
65
09/23
5.9
87
09/30
4.1
75
10/07
-3.0
29
10/14
3.0
70
10/21
-4.2
23
11/04
-1.7
38
11/11
6.9
90
M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
Value
Ptile
10/31
-2.4
34
11/06
-4.5
22
11/13
-7.5
7
09/09
-0.4
47
09/16
-1.4
40
09/23
-5.3
16
09/30
-4.6
21
10/07
-5.5
15
11/01
-1.2
41
11/12
-6.0
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Bengals logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
13
25
Yards / Game
23
19
Passing Yards / Game
22
4
Rushing Yards / Game
18
27

EPA

EPA / Play
17
31
EPA / Pass
23
32
EPA / Rush
8
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
10
Interceptions / Game
18
31
Fumbles / Game
18
26
Turnover EPA / Game
19
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
17
4th Down Efficiency
3
30
RZ Efficiency
18
16
Chiefs Offense vs Bengals Defense
Chiefs logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
32
8
Yards / Game
24
8
Passing Yards / Game
31
8
Rushing Yards / Game
5
14

EPA

EPA / Play
31
4
EPA / Pass
31
3
EPA / Rush
16
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
7
Interceptions / Game
31
17
Fumbles / Game
28
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
10
4th Down Efficiency
19
7
RZ Efficiency
32
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/07
-21
L
L
O
09/10
-31
L
L
O
09/16
7
W
P
O
09/23
7
W
W
O
09/30
17
W
W
U
10/07
-4
L
L
U
10/14
-10
L
L
O
10/21
-7
L
L
U
11/04
-8
L
L
O
11/11
18
W
W
U
KC logo

Chiefs

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
4
W
W
U
09/09
-16
L
L
O
09/16
-18
L
L
O
09/23
3
W
W
U
09/30
-17
L
L
O
10/07
-3
L
W
U
10/14
-28
L
L
O
10/28
-10
L
L
O
11/01
-18
L
L
O
11/12
-3
L
W
U