CINBengals
4-5
28
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
59°F
15 mph
6
KCChiefs
1-8
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
59°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
14
0
7
28
Chiefs
3
3
0
0
6
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
409
284
Total Plays
69
60
Yards / Play
5.9
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.22
-0.16
Passing Yards
220
171
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
17/30(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.36
-0.32
Rushing Yards
189
113
Rush Attempts
38
26
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
29%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
4
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
4
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.74
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-10
-17
Sack EPA
-3.35
-3.58
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
54
30
Penalty EPA
-8.10
-5.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model53.3%
Spread Pick
Chiefs+3.0
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+14
Home nfelo
1,405
Away nfelo
1,450
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-14.8
Home QB Adjustment
-2.2
Away QB Adjustment
+12.6
Market Regression
+9.9
Final Difference
-23.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
25
Yards / Game
23
19
Passing Yards / Game
22
4
Rushing Yards / Game
18
27
EPA
EPA / Play
17
31
EPA / Pass
23
32
EPA / Rush
8
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
10
Interceptions / Game
18
31
Fumbles / Game
18
26
Turnover EPA / Game
19
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
17
4th Down Efficiency
3
30
RZ Efficiency
18
16
Chiefs Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
8
Yards / Game
24
8
Passing Yards / Game
31
8
Rushing Yards / Game
5
14
EPA
EPA / Play
31
4
EPA / Pass
31
3
EPA / Rush
16
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
7
Interceptions / Game
31
17
Fumbles / Game
28
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
10
4th Down Efficiency
19
7
RZ Efficiency
32
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chiefs
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U