CINBengals
14-4
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
22°F
13 mph
23
KCChiefs
15-3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
22°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
6
7
7
20
Chiefs
3
10
7
3
23
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
309
357
Total Plays
63
66
Yards / Play
4.9
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.00
+0.05
Passing Yards
238
315
Comp/Att
26/41(63%)
29/43(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.17
Rushing Yards
71
42
Rush Attempts
17
20
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.1
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
11
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.51
-5.97
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-32
-11
Sack EPA
-7.17
-7.92
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
71
55
Penalty EPA
-7.25
-0.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+72
Home nfelo
1,639
Away nfelo
1,625
Home Field
+64.2
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-12.9
Home QB Adjustment
+7.4
Away QB Adjustment
+20.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+20.3
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
18
Yards / Game
11
14
Passing Yards / Game
1
28
Rushing Yards / Game
28
8
EPA
EPA / Play
5
27
EPA / Pass
4
15
EPA / Rush
18
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
30
Interceptions / Game
13
21
Fumbles / Game
4
2
Turnover EPA / Game
23
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
22
4th Down Efficiency
32
24
RZ Efficiency
7
28
Chiefs Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
5
Yards / Game
1
17
Passing Yards / Game
12
29
Rushing Yards / Game
20
5
EPA
EPA / Play
1
7
EPA / Pass
1
10
EPA / Rush
6
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
7
Interceptions / Game
7
15
Fumbles / Game
6
3
Turnover EPA / Game
27
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
2
12
RZ Efficiency
2
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
10-0
SU
8-1-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U