CINBengals
-
34
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
023
INDColts
-
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
7
7
11
28
Colts
3
13
7
0
23
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
330
380
Total Plays
50
77
Yards / Play
6.6
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.11
Passing Yards
229
305
Comp/Att
21/28(75%)
39/53(74%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.05
Rushing Yards
101
75
Rush Attempts
20
22
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
24
Passing 1st downs
11
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
50%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
4
11
3rd Down Attempts
8
17
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.70
-13.59
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-14
Sack EPA
-3.31
-3.63
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
94
91
Penalty EPA
-9.21
-9.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model47.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+45
Home nfelo
1,414
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+56.4
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+40.4
Home QB Adjustment
+34.0
Away QB Adjustment
-6.4
Market Regression
-13.4
Final Difference
15.9
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+34.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
8
Yards / Game
26
11
Passing Yards / Game
22
4
Rushing Yards / Game
21
9
EPA
EPA / Play
18
8
EPA / Pass
18
6
EPA / Rush
19
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
31
Interceptions / Game
17
13
Fumbles / Game
1
12
Turnover EPA / Game
24
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
18
4th Down Efficiency
18
7
RZ Efficiency
3
11
Colts Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
30
Yards / Game
7
32
Passing Yards / Game
24
10
Rushing Yards / Game
16
29
EPA
EPA / Play
10
29
EPA / Pass
10
29
EPA / Rush
18
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
19
Interceptions / Game
22
20
Fumbles / Game
21
19
Turnover EPA / Game
9
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
32
4th Down Efficiency
19
26
RZ Efficiency
7
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Colts
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
1-9
O/U