CINBengals
1-1
38
TBD
FedExField
65°F
6 mph
31
WASCommanders
1-1
TBD
FedExField
65°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
14
10
0
14
38
Commanders
1
3
14
7
25
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
478
381
Total Plays
58
74
Yards / Play
8.2
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.05
Passing Yards
385
179
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
13.8
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.74
-0.06
Rushing Yards
93
202
Rush Attempts
28
35
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
31
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
15
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.32
-4.99
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-16
-42
Sack EPA
-3.95
-7.60
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
80
55
Penalty EPA
-6.19
-7.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model64.0%
Spread Pick
Commanders-3.0
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+30.2
Home QB Adjustment
+29.6
Away QB Adjustment
-0.6
Market Regression
-12.0
Final Difference
99.9
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+29.6
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
22
Yards / Game
23
28
Passing Yards / Game
22
32
Rushing Yards / Game
18
9
EPA
EPA / Play
17
23
EPA / Pass
23
21
EPA / Rush
8
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
21
Interceptions / Game
18
4
Fumbles / Game
18
15
Turnover EPA / Game
19
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
31
4th Down Efficiency
3
23
RZ Efficiency
18
14
Commanders Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
8
Yards / Game
9
8
Passing Yards / Game
15
8
Rushing Yards / Game
1
14
EPA
EPA / Play
7
4
EPA / Pass
6
3
EPA / Rush
2
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
7
Interceptions / Game
3
17
Fumbles / Game
6
4
Turnover EPA / Game
30
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
10
4th Down Efficiency
6
7
RZ Efficiency
5
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
4-6
SU
1-6-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-2-1
O/U