CINBengals
0-1
17
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
020
DALCowboys
0-1
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
0
6
8
17
Cowboys
14
3
0
3
20
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
256
337
Total Plays
68
59
Yards / Play
3.8
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.03
Passing Yards
167
230
Comp/Att
24/37(65%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.09
Rushing Yards
89
107
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
35%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.33
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-34
-5
Sack EPA
-6.93
-1.89
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
35
45
Penalty EPA
-5.74
-9.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model69.6%
Spread Pick
Cowboys+7.0
Expected Value
+6.2%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-111
Home nfelo
1,542
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+44.1
Base HFA
+37.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.7
Net QB Adjustment
-164.0
Home QB Adjustment
-168.0
Away QB Adjustment
-4.0
Market Regression
+7.8
Final Difference
-144.0
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
C. Rush
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-168.0
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
6
Yards / Game
11
13
Passing Yards / Game
1
15
Rushing Yards / Game
28
22
EPA
EPA / Play
5
3
EPA / Pass
4
4
EPA / Rush
18
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
29
Interceptions / Game
13
10
Fumbles / Game
4
1
Turnover EPA / Game
23
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
18
4th Down Efficiency
32
17
RZ Efficiency
7
5
Cowboys Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
5
Yards / Game
10
17
Passing Yards / Game
23
29
Rushing Yards / Game
9
5
EPA
EPA / Play
9
7
EPA / Pass
9
10
EPA / Rush
12
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
7
Interceptions / Game
30
15
Fumbles / Game
3
3
Turnover EPA / Game
20
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
19
4th Down Efficiency
5
12
RZ Efficiency
1
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Cowboys
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U