CINBengals
2-2
14
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
028
DALCowboys
3-1
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
0
0
14
14
Cowboys
7
14
7
0
28
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
345
402
Total Plays
64
54
Yards / Play
5.4
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.28
Passing Yards
249
222
Comp/Att
29/41(71%)
18/24(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
9.3
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.41
Rushing Yards
96
180
Rush Attempts
19
29
Yards / Rush
5.1
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
21
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
42%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
8
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.52
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-20
-5
Sack EPA
-4.76
-5.52
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
49
45
Penalty EPA
-6.86
-6.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model52.9%
Spread Pick
Cowboys+2.5
Expected Value
+2.1%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+9
Home nfelo
1,514
Away nfelo
1,575
Home Field
+67.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+1.5
Home QB Adjustment
+7.5
Away QB Adjustment
+5.9
Market Regression
-20.1
Final Difference
-20.1
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.9
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
8
Yards / Game
12
16
Passing Yards / Game
9
26
Rushing Yards / Game
13
1
EPA
EPA / Play
10
15
EPA / Pass
12
20
EPA / Rush
5
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
24
Interceptions / Game
6
26
Fumbles / Game
7
14
Turnover EPA / Game
27
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
17
4th Down Efficiency
3
23
RZ Efficiency
18
18
Cowboys Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
7
Yards / Game
5
17
Passing Yards / Game
20
25
Rushing Yards / Game
2
21
EPA
EPA / Play
4
22
EPA / Pass
4
14
EPA / Rush
2
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
7
Interceptions / Game
4
4
Fumbles / Game
21
27
Turnover EPA / Game
24
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
16
4th Down Efficiency
1
14
RZ Efficiency
6
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cowboys
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U