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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ cowboys week 5, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
2-2
14
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
28
DALCowboys
3-1
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
0
0
14
14
Cowboys
7
14
7
0
28

Spread

DAL logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
345
402
Total Plays
64
54
Yards / Play
5.4
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.28
Passing Yards
249
222
Comp/Att
29/41(71%)
18/24(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
9.3
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.41
Rushing Yards
96
180
Rush Attempts
19
29
Yards / Rush
5.1
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
27
21
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
42%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
8
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.52
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-20
-5
Sack EPA
-4.76
-5.52
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
49
45
Penalty EPA
-6.86
-6.09

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
DAL logo
Cowboys+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.1%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+13
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,573
Home Field
+68.5
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+1.5
Home QB Adjustment
+7.5
Away QB Adjustment
+5.9
Market Regression
-15.1
Final Difference
-15.1
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.9
Value
Ptile
11/05
4.0
78
11/16
-5.3
13
11/22
2.3
66
11/29
4.5
81
12/06
5.1
82
12/13
-7.2
6
09/11
-1.0
40
09/18
3.9
77
09/25
-2.2
33
09/29
1.8
63
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
Value
Ptile
09/11
-1.5
37
09/18
1.1
57
09/25
8.1
93
10/02
2.4
68

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Bengals logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
24
8
Yards / Game
12
16
Passing Yards / Game
9
26
Rushing Yards / Game
13
1

EPA

EPA / Play
10
15
EPA / Pass
12
20
EPA / Rush
5
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
24
Interceptions / Game
6
26
Fumbles / Game
7
14
Turnover EPA / Game
27
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
17
4th Down Efficiency
3
23
RZ Efficiency
18
18
Cowboys Offense vs Bengals Defense
Cowboys logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
5
7
Yards / Game
5
17
Passing Yards / Game
20
25
Rushing Yards / Game
2
21

EPA

EPA / Play
4
22
EPA / Pass
4
14
EPA / Rush
2
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
7
Interceptions / Game
4
4
Fumbles / Game
21
27
Turnover EPA / Game
24
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
16
4th Down Efficiency
1
14
RZ Efficiency
6
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
34
W
W
U
12/13
-13
L
L
O
12/20
10
W
W
U
12/28
-3
L
W
U
01/03
8
W
L
U
01/09
-2
L
P
U
09/11
1
W
W
O
09/18
-8
L
L
U
09/25
-12
L
L
O
09/29
15
W
W
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
-19
L
L
O
12/07
3
W
W
U
12/13
-21
L
L
U
12/19
-3
L
P
U
12/27
-10
L
L
U
01/03
-11
L
L
O
09/11
-1
L
L
U
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/25
14
W
W
O
10/02
7
W
W
U