CINBengals
4-8
27
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
020
DALCowboys
5-7
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
10
0
10
27
Cowboys
7
3
7
3
20
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
433
322
Total Plays
65
59
Yards / Play
6.7
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.04
Passing Yards
359
166
Comp/Att
33/44(75%)
16/31(52%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.19
Rushing Yards
74
156
Rush Attempts
19
25
Yards / Rush
3.9
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
17
Passing 1st downs
18
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-0.84
-4.59
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-10
-17
Sack EPA
-2.80
-4.34
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
77
36
Penalty EPA
-6.39
-4.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-127
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,559
Home Field
+47.4
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
-97.5
Home QB Adjustment
-69.5
Away QB Adjustment
+28.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-127.0
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+28.0
C. Rush
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-69.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
31
Yards / Game
9
28
Passing Yards / Game
1
19
Rushing Yards / Game
30
29
EPA
EPA / Play
6
27
EPA / Pass
5
15
EPA / Rush
14
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
19
Interceptions / Game
9
13
Fumbles / Game
27
11
Turnover EPA / Game
18
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
9
4th Down Efficiency
21
27
RZ Efficiency
5
32
Cowboys Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
25
Yards / Game
16
24
Passing Yards / Game
6
13
Rushing Yards / Game
27
19
EPA
EPA / Play
25
28
EPA / Pass
29
17
EPA / Rush
30
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
10
Interceptions / Game
21
9
Fumbles / Game
32
8
Turnover EPA / Game
5
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
23
4th Down Efficiency
32
19
RZ Efficiency
31
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Cowboys
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U