CINBengals
2-8
7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
81°F
5 mph
19
MIADolphins
7-4
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
81°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
0
0
0
7
Dolphins
0
6
10
3
19
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
196
406
Total Plays
50
67
Yards / Play
3.9
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.25
+0.02
Passing Yards
156
--
Comp/Att
17/27(63%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.42
+0.18
Rushing Yards
40
110
Rush Attempts
17
28
Yards / Rush
2.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
23
Passing 1st downs
6
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
25%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
3
1
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.70
-3.50
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-37
--
Sack EPA
-9.22
--
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
62
54
Penalty EPA
-5.25
-4.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+193
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,397
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+53.6
Home QB Adjustment
-57.7
Away QB Adjustment
-111.3
Market Regression
-11.4
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
B. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-111.3
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-57.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
4
Yards / Game
30
19
Passing Yards / Game
27
28
Rushing Yards / Game
23
16
EPA
EPA / Play
25
5
EPA / Pass
23
3
EPA / Rush
30
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
18
Interceptions / Game
11
1
Fumbles / Game
27
3
Turnover EPA / Game
6
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
1
4th Down Efficiency
4
9
RZ Efficiency
29
7
Dolphins Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
21
Yards / Game
23
25
Passing Yards / Game
17
2
Rushing Yards / Game
21
29
EPA
EPA / Play
17
26
EPA / Pass
17
24
EPA / Rush
25
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
6
Interceptions / Game
17
20
Fumbles / Game
12
24
Turnover EPA / Game
16
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
20
4th Down Efficiency
2
24
RZ Efficiency
16
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
2-7-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U