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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ dolphins week 16, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
1-13
35
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
76°F
15 mph
38
MIADolphins
3-11
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
76°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bengals
0
6
6
23
0
35
Dolphins
14
7
7
7
3
38

Spread

MIA logo
+1.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
434
502
Total Plays
88
88
Yards / Play
4.9
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.14
Passing Yards
373
406
Comp/Att
33/58(57%)
31/52(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.35
Rushing Yards
61
96
Rush Attempts
26
34
Yards / Rush
2.3
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
25
29
Passing 1st downs
21
21
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
22%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
18
16
Red Zone %
67%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.58
-2.57
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-25
-13
Sack EPA
-8.63
-3.12
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
77
47
Penalty EPA
-9.77
-6.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-20
Home nfelo
1,251
Away nfelo
1,333
Home Field
+46.6
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.8
Home QB Adjustment
+20.4
Away QB Adjustment
+5.6
Market Regression
-33.0
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
Value
Ptile
09/15
-1.3
44
09/22
-1.8
40
09/30
-13.2
1
10/06
3.6
76
10/13
-3.2
30
10/20
-3.0
31
10/27
-0.4
49
12/01
-1.6
43
12/08
-3.3
29
12/15
-7.2
11
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+20.4
Value
Ptile
09/15
-14.2
1
10/20
4.6
82
10/28
-5.4
18
11/03
0.6
56
11/10
-3.6
27
11/17
-1.5
43
11/24
-2.0
39
12/01
4.3
80
12/08
-1.4
44
12/15
0.6
56

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bengals logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
30
32
Yards / Game
26
30
Passing Yards / Game
11
29
Rushing Yards / Game
25
27

EPA

EPA / Play
25
32
EPA / Pass
29
32
EPA / Rush
22
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
1
Interceptions / Game
23
13
Fumbles / Game
27
32
Turnover EPA / Game
6
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
24
4th Down Efficiency
12
28
RZ Efficiency
30
28
Dolphins Offense vs Bengals Defense
Dolphins logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
25
25
Yards / Game
27
29
Passing Yards / Game
4
9
Rushing Yards / Game
32
32

EPA

EPA / Play
27
30
EPA / Pass
26
29
EPA / Rush
30
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
9
Interceptions / Game
27
21
Fumbles / Game
4
25
Turnover EPA / Game
9
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
25
4th Down Efficiency
17
20
RZ Efficiency
18
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
-3
L
L
O
10/13
-6
L
W
U
10/20
-10
L
L
U
10/27
-14
L
L
U
11/10
-36
L
L
O
11/17
-7
L
W
U
11/24
-6
L
L
U
12/01
16
W
W
U
12/08
-8
L
L
O
12/15
-21
L
L
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
-1
L
W
U
10/20
-10
L
W
O
10/28
-13
L
W
U
11/03
8
W
W
O
11/10
4
W
W
U
11/17
-17
L
L
O
11/24
-17
L
L
O
12/01
6
W
W
O
12/08
-1
L
W
U
12/15
-16
L
L
O