CINBengals
1-13
35
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
76°F
15 mph
38
MIADolphins
3-11
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
76°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bengals
0
6
6
23
0
35
Dolphins
14
7
7
7
3
38
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
434
502
Total Plays
88
88
Yards / Play
4.9
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.14
Passing Yards
373
406
Comp/Att
33/58(57%)
31/52(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.35
Rushing Yards
61
96
Rush Attempts
26
34
Yards / Rush
2.3
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
29
Passing 1st downs
21
21
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
22%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
18
16
Red Zone %
67%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.58
-2.57
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-25
-13
Sack EPA
-8.63
-3.12
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
77
47
Penalty EPA
-9.77
-6.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-20
Home nfelo
1,253
Away nfelo
1,335
Home Field
+46.5
Base HFA
+46.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.8
Home QB Adjustment
+20.4
Away QB Adjustment
+5.6
Market Regression
-33.1
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+20.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
32
Yards / Game
26
30
Passing Yards / Game
11
29
Rushing Yards / Game
25
27
EPA
EPA / Play
25
32
EPA / Pass
29
32
EPA / Rush
22
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
1
Interceptions / Game
23
13
Fumbles / Game
27
32
Turnover EPA / Game
6
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
24
4th Down Efficiency
12
28
RZ Efficiency
29
28
Dolphins Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
25
Yards / Game
27
29
Passing Yards / Game
4
9
Rushing Yards / Game
32
32
EPA
EPA / Play
27
30
EPA / Pass
26
29
EPA / Rush
30
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
9
Interceptions / Game
27
21
Fumbles / Game
4
25
Turnover EPA / Game
9
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
25
4th Down Efficiency
17
20
RZ Efficiency
18
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U