CINBengals
0-2
23
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
76°F
5 mph
23
PHIEagles
0-2
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
76°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
10
7
6
23
Eagles
0
13
3
7
23
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
304
378
Total Plays
70
86
Yards / Play
4.3
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.02
Passing Yards
256
206
Comp/Att
31/44(70%)
29/47(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.18
Rushing Yards
48
172
Rush Attempts
18
36
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
27
Passing 1st downs
19
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
12
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
23%
48%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
13
21
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.21
Sacks
8
3
Sack Yards
-56
-19
Sack EPA
-10.43
-4.99
Penalties
9
11
Penalty Yards
73
93
Penalty EPA
-8.50
-11.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model67.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+91
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,392
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.7
Home QB Adjustment
-12.6
Away QB Adjustment
+4.1
Market Regression
-2.1
Final Difference
122.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
Value
Ptile
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-12.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
20
Yards / Game
30
17
Passing Yards / Game
27
29
Rushing Yards / Game
23
22
EPA
EPA / Play
25
12
EPA / Pass
23
15
EPA / Rush
30
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
1
Interceptions / Game
11
29
Fumbles / Game
27
6
Turnover EPA / Game
6
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
8
4th Down Efficiency
4
3
RZ Efficiency
29
28
Eagles Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
21
Yards / Game
25
25
Passing Yards / Game
23
2
Rushing Yards / Game
10
29
EPA
EPA / Play
29
26
EPA / Pass
31
24
EPA / Rush
14
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
6
Interceptions / Game
31
20
Fumbles / Game
23
24
Turnover EPA / Game
5
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
20
4th Down Efficiency
26
24
RZ Efficiency
13
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Eagles
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U