CINBengals
2-1
37
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
036
ATLFalcons
1-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
14
14
0
9
37
Falcons
7
17
3
9
36
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
407
495
Total Plays
68
67
Yards / Play
6.0
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.22
Passing Yards
308
403
Comp/Att
29/42(69%)
29/40(73%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
10.1
EPA / Pass
+0.36
+0.42
Rushing Yards
99
92
Rush Attempts
23
24
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
25
Passing 1st downs
20
20
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
58%
73%
3rd Down Conversions
7
11
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
80%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.31
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-29
-16
Sack EPA
-7.48
-5.91
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
55
95
Penalty EPA
-5.33
-10.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model63.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+134
Home nfelo
1,576
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+56.6
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.0
Home QB Adjustment
+12.5
Away QB Adjustment
+4.5
Market Regression
-33.0
Final Difference
98.0
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
25
Yards / Game
26
28
Passing Yards / Game
22
26
Rushing Yards / Game
21
25
EPA
EPA / Play
18
30
EPA / Pass
18
23
EPA / Rush
19
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
13
Interceptions / Game
17
11
Fumbles / Game
1
31
Turnover EPA / Game
24
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
31
4th Down Efficiency
18
28
RZ Efficiency
3
27
Falcons Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
30
Yards / Game
6
32
Passing Yards / Game
3
10
Rushing Yards / Game
27
29
EPA
EPA / Play
5
29
EPA / Pass
6
29
EPA / Rush
24
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
19
Interceptions / Game
3
20
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
20
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
32
4th Down Efficiency
19
26
RZ Efficiency
11
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U