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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ jaguars week 13, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
5-6
34
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
61°F
4 mph
31
JAXJaguars
8-3
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
61°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bengals
0
14
7
10
3
34
Jaguars
7
7
14
3
0
31

Spread

CIN logo
+10

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
491
376
Total Plays
72
68
Yards / Play
6.8
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.10
Passing Yards
335
305
Comp/Att
33/39(85%)
31/39(79%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.29
Rushing Yards
156
71
Rush Attempts
31
25
Yards / Rush
5.0
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
27
23
Passing 1st downs
17
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
57%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.53
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-12
-16
Sack EPA
-4.28
-3.88
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
35
55
Penalty EPA
-4.97
-6.47

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+205
Home nfelo
1,561
Away nfelo
1,536
Home Field
+60.7
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+119.5
Home QB Adjustment
+12.2
Away QB Adjustment
-107.3
Market Regression
+64.4
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

J. Browning headshot

J. Browning

Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-107.3
Value
Ptile
11/26
-1.9
36
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
Value
Ptile
09/17
-5.3
17
09/24
3.0
69
10/01
2.3
65
10/08
2.7
68
10/15
-2.6
32
10/19
6.6
89
10/29
1.8
61
11/12
-9.8
3
11/19
9.7
97
11/26
4.6
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Bengals logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
16
16
Yards / Game
23
19
Passing Yards / Game
9
20
Rushing Yards / Game
32
9

EPA

EPA / Play
12
14
EPA / Pass
15
11
EPA / Rush
15
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
18
Interceptions / Game
19
12
Fumbles / Game
1
13
Turnover EPA / Game
25
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
8
4th Down Efficiency
25
17
RZ Efficiency
10
16
Jaguars Offense vs Bengals Defense
Jaguars logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
15
20
Yards / Game
12
31
Passing Yards / Game
22
30
Rushing Yards / Game
23
26

EPA

EPA / Play
15
26
EPA / Pass
19
25
EPA / Rush
28
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
7
Interceptions / Game
19
5
Fumbles / Game
31
21
Turnover EPA / Game
7
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
23
4th Down Efficiency
27
8
RZ Efficiency
21
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
-3
L
L
O
09/25
3
W
P
U
10/01
-24
L
L
U
10/08
14
W
W
O
10/15
4
W
W
U
10/29
14
W
W
O
11/05
6
W
W
U
11/12
-3
L
L
O
11/16
-14
L
L
O
11/26
-6
L
L
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
-8
L
L
U
09/24
-20
L
L
O
10/01
16
W
W
U
10/08
5
W
W
U
10/15
17
W
W
O
10/19
7
W
W
O
10/29
10
W
W
U
11/12
-31
L
L
U
11/19
20
W
W
O
11/26
3
W
W
U