CINBengals
5-6
34
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
61°F
4 mph
31
JAXJaguars
8-3
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
61°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bengals
0
14
7
10
3
34
Jaguars
7
7
14
3
0
31
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
491
376
Total Plays
72
68
Yards / Play
6.8
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.10
Passing Yards
335
305
Comp/Att
33/39(85%)
31/39(79%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.29
Rushing Yards
156
71
Rush Attempts
31
25
Yards / Rush
5.0
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
23
Passing 1st downs
17
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
57%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.53
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-12
-16
Sack EPA
-4.28
-3.88
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
35
55
Penalty EPA
-4.97
-6.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+207
Home nfelo
1,565
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+60.8
Base HFA
+45.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+118.4
Home QB Adjustment
+12.1
Away QB Adjustment
-106.4
Market Regression
+64.4
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
J. Browning
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-106.4
Value
Ptile
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
16
Yards / Game
23
19
Passing Yards / Game
9
20
Rushing Yards / Game
32
9
EPA
EPA / Play
12
14
EPA / Pass
15
11
EPA / Rush
15
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
18
Interceptions / Game
19
12
Fumbles / Game
1
13
Turnover EPA / Game
25
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
8
4th Down Efficiency
25
17
RZ Efficiency
10
16
Jaguars Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
20
Yards / Game
12
31
Passing Yards / Game
22
30
Rushing Yards / Game
23
26
EPA
EPA / Play
15
26
EPA / Pass
19
25
EPA / Rush
28
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
7
Interceptions / Game
19
5
Fumbles / Game
31
21
Turnover EPA / Game
7
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
23
4th Down Efficiency
27
8
RZ Efficiency
21
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U