CINBengals
-
23
TBD
MetLife Stadium
79°F
17 mph
22
NYJJets
-
TBD
MetLife Stadium
79°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
10
7
3
23
Jets
7
9
0
6
22
Spread
1
P
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
381
340
Total Plays
56
66
Yards / Play
6.8
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.03
Passing Yards
324
188
Comp/Att
23/30(77%)
19/35(54%)
Yards / Pass
10.8
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.25
-0.05
Rushing Yards
57
152
Rush Attempts
19
30
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
27%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.12
-2.69
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-42
-1
Sack EPA
-10.25
-1.55
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
44
95
Penalty EPA
-8.07
-8.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-20
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,603
Home Field
+59.0
Base HFA
+59.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.1
Home QB Adjustment
+6.2
Away QB Adjustment
+7.4
Market Regression
-16.0
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
28
Yards / Game
12
11
Passing Yards / Game
9
12
Rushing Yards / Game
13
13
EPA
EPA / Play
10
23
EPA / Pass
12
30
EPA / Rush
5
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
16
Interceptions / Game
6
29
Fumbles / Game
7
27
Turnover EPA / Game
27
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
19
4th Down Efficiency
3
1
RZ Efficiency
18
21
Jets Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
7
Yards / Game
26
17
Passing Yards / Game
15
25
Rushing Yards / Game
11
21
EPA
EPA / Play
30
22
EPA / Pass
31
14
EPA / Rush
9
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
7
Interceptions / Game
32
4
Fumbles / Game
16
27
Turnover EPA / Game
3
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
16
4th Down Efficiency
26
14
RZ Efficiency
32
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Jets
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U