CINBengals
3-2
34
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
011
DETLions
0-5
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
3
10
14
34
Lions
0
0
0
11
11
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
398
230
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
5.9
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.22
Passing Yards
256
194
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
28/43(65%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.41
-0.16
Rushing Yards
142
36
Rush Attempts
36
18
Yards / Rush
3.9
2.0
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
53%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.77
-3.03
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-22
-10
Sack EPA
-4.88
-1.65
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
--
77
Penalty EPA
--
-5.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-56
Home nfelo
1,378
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+41.5
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.2
Home QB Adjustment
-3.9
Away QB Adjustment
+5.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-3.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
31
Yards / Game
14
29
Passing Yards / Game
3
24
Rushing Yards / Game
24
28
EPA
EPA / Play
12
30
EPA / Pass
9
29
EPA / Rush
22
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
19
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
2
11
Turnover EPA / Game
17
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
29
4th Down Efficiency
5
28
RZ Efficiency
23
30
Lions Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
13
Yards / Game
22
19
Passing Yards / Game
25
28
Rushing Yards / Game
18
7
EPA
EPA / Play
23
10
EPA / Pass
21
14
EPA / Rush
25
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
1
Interceptions / Game
14
8
Fumbles / Game
20
8
Turnover EPA / Game
8
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
20
4th Down Efficiency
21
2
RZ Efficiency
31
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Lions
1-9
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U