CINBengals
10-4
22
TBD
Gillette Stadium
21°F
2 mph
18
NEPatriots
7-7
TBD
Gillette Stadium
21°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
12
10
0
0
22
Patriots
0
0
0
12
12
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
442
285
Total Plays
79
54
Yards / Play
5.6
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.20
Passing Yards
369
224
Comp/Att
40/52(77%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.04
Rushing Yards
73
61
Rush Attempts
25
16
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
15
Passing 1st downs
18
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
50%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-15.76
-5.25
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-6
-16
Sack EPA
-2.71
-5.30
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
62
82
Penalty EPA
-8.66
-15.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-68
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,625
Home Field
+41.2
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-36.7
Home QB Adjustment
-15.7
Away QB Adjustment
+21.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+21.1
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-15.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
11
Yards / Game
11
9
Passing Yards / Game
1
27
Rushing Yards / Game
28
7
EPA
EPA / Play
5
2
EPA / Pass
4
3
EPA / Rush
18
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
14
Interceptions / Game
13
3
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
23
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
20
4th Down Efficiency
32
2
RZ Efficiency
7
21
Patriots Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
5
Yards / Game
26
17
Passing Yards / Game
19
29
Rushing Yards / Game
24
5
EPA
EPA / Play
26
7
EPA / Pass
22
10
EPA / Rush
24
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
7
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
29
3
Turnover EPA / Game
22
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
19
4th Down Efficiency
28
12
RZ Efficiency
32
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Patriots
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U